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| Transcript of Chat with Mr. Vijay Bhambwani, CEO - Bsplindia.com - 19th Oct 2001 |
[04:31:47 PM] => Myiris : Welcome to the live chat session
[04:32:52 PM] => Myiris: Our guest Mr. Vijay Bhambwani will be joining us shortly
[04:34:37 PM] => DISCLAIMER :
[04:35:08 PM] => Mr. Vijay Bhambwani, CEO - Bsplindia.com. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Bhambwani may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr. Bhambwani is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Bhambwani, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:36:47 PM] => None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:37:04 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Bhambwani have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:37:20 PM] => Welcome to the chat session Mr. Bhambwani
[04:37:54 PM] => Mahendra: In what range do you see the Sensex over the next 3 to 6 months? Which sectors should I invest?
[04:38:44 PM] => VB : Sectors to invest are Pharma ( prefer biotech plays ) and Oil & Gas drilling, distribution and select section of the FMCG. The Sensex can see upward resistance at 3,150 & 3,360 levels. On the downside, expect support at 2,800 levels. Beyond these points take a review in outlook.
[04:39:35 PM] => Verma1986: Should we sell tisco now?
[04:39:57 PM] => VB :Tisco can see an upswing taking it to 84 - 86 levels. Start selling at that objective onwards.
[04:41:05 PM] => Verma1986: Can we go short on tisco now?
[04:42:00 PM] => VB: Only on a confirmed reversal signal, with higher volumes & above 86 can you go short.
[04:42:35 PM] => JoseS: Given the current scenario, what do you recommend to invest in - old economy or new economy?
[04:43:09 PM] => VB: The new economy should not be written off, but outlook review to moderate - say no more than 30 % of total exposure. Old economy, preferably pharma, oil gas and drilling will outperform.
[04:44:00 PM] => Jaan: How do you forsee the FMCG sector growth at this year? Should one invest in defensive stocks like HLL, Colgate, Cadbury etc?
[04:45:06 PM] => VB: There is a school of thought that FMCG is defensive, but my view is that even this sector will suffer a slowdown. However, FMCG stocks are great brand equity plays and therefore merit investments for medium / long term. Consider Cadbury, Britannia and HLL on substantial declines.
[04:46:35 PM] => Sudhakar: With economy in a recession and war in the neighbourhood would you recommend investors to invest or lay off for some time?
[04:47:41 PM] => VB: Sudhakar lay off the investment game only if you plan to stop paying telephone/electricity and petrol bills!!! Life has to continue and so do investments. I would rather advise you to get more savvy and well informed instead. Opportunities don�t die off, it only needs an optimist and discerning investor to exploit it.
[04:48:20 PM] => Dinesh: Do you forseee any major FII selling in the next couple of months?
[04:49:50 PM] => VB: Typically FII�s pare down equity exposure commencing from Nov onwards and a similar maybe seen this year too. However, my analysis suggests that emerging markets (and by default India ) will see better allocations since the US mainland markets are in turmoil.
[04:51:28 PM] => Rajas: I hold shares of Zee TV. Should I hold it or sell? What is the future of Zee?
[04:52:33 PM] => VB: Zee remains a compulsive company to invest in, but Mr. Goels infatuation with the agrani satellite phone project worries me. This is a similar case of management ambitions writing cheques from company�s chequebooks in the case of Ratan Tata bleeding Telco. Keep a stop loss at 70 levels. Start selling at 125 and 140 levels in staggered lots.
[04:54:34 PM] => JoshiL : How do you find the Infosys results? Do you think other IT companies will also be able to post these kind of returns?
[04:55:37 PM] => VB: I�m afraid I practice technical analysis (charting) more than fundamentals (balance sheets / P&L) so I maynot be able to claim qualification to answer that question adequately.
[04:56:11 PM] => Kavita: I want to invest in Pharmaceutical industry. I request you to suggest me best stock fundamentally and technically.
[04:57:01 PM] => VB: Keep watching Ranbaxy and Wockhardt. They are pharma majors and infant biotech plays with immense potential. Chartically they are getting stronger.
[04:58:28 PM] => Santosh: Which stocks would you recommend which can give returns by way of healthy dividend and will have the least capital risk?
[04:58:50 PM] => VB: Stocks like GNFC and Madura Coats are worth considering on significant down moves.
[04:59:56 PM] => SoumyaGhosh: Do you expect any rate cuts before the monetary policy?
[05:00:57 PM] => VB: Yes.
[05:01:48 PM] => Gugnani: What is your views on PSU stocks like VSNL? Will the govt's decision to disinvest in that company have any impact on the price in the longer term?
[05:02:35 PM] => VB: The enterprise value and cash position in the company is very healthy. However, delays in disinvestment will only ensure erosion in valuations. It�s ISP business will face intense competition and so will basic telephony over a period of time. If the govt insists that the private bidder cannot retrench excess staff, it�ll further add to the financial burdens. In light of the recent change in govt attitudes towards acceleration of reforms, it may just see a reversal in fortunes.
[05:04:35 PM] => Ajay: We have often heard that if you want to make money in stock markets, one has to have insider information. Is it true? Is there any role for middle class people in the stock markets or is only a rich gambler's paradise?
[05:06:21 PM] => VB: Ajay, I assume that you form the "middle class people" category just defined by yourself. According to me this category is the backbone of any financial market. Retail participation lends depth and maturity to markets, who will the speculators buy / sell shares from / to, if the retail investor is absent? Remain assured, speculators may create a short time ripple in prices, ultimately fundamental strengths decide if a company merits investments. Please don�t destroy your hard earned wealth with rumours, nor should you forsake investments.
[05:07:48 PM] => Manish: Sir the primary markets look completely dead? What do you think should be done to revive this? When do you expect it to bounce back?
[05:08:53 PM] => VB: I�m afraid there is little scope for a revival in the near term term Manish.
[05:09:44 PM] => Priya: Where should one invest in such panic times? What sectors and stocks can one enter?
[05:11:13 PM] => VB: Priya, theres ample value and opportunity even in these panic times and one can look at export potential / import substitution sectors. Pharmaceuticals especially biotech plays like Ranbaxy, Wockhardt, Dr. Reddy�s are good bets on significant declines. In import substitution we have oil & gas drilling and transportation plays like Reliance Industries and Gujarat Gas which are attractive for patient investors - again on declines.
[05:14:46 PM] => Raghuvir : Would you advice anyone to invest in tech stocks at all now?
[05:16:38 PM] => VB : I would prefer to wait and watch for signs for a ustainable recovery before buying tech stocks. The worst maynot be over yet. The effects of the Sept 11 attacks will reflect in the coming quarter.
[05:17:36 PM] => SP65 : Whats your expectations form the credit policy?
[05:18:10 PM] => VB : I�m sorry, I am a technical analyst (chartist) and don�t really follow govt. policy measures.
[05:19:05 PM] => RK87 : Which are the stocks, in your opinion which look good on long-term?
[05:20:13 PM] => VB : Contemplate bying Ranbaxy, Wockhardt, Gujarat Gas and Reliance Inds on major declines.
[05:21:39 PM] => Sachink: What are the pharma stocks should one choose for the investment?
[05:22:45 PM] => VB : Consider buying Ranbaxy, Wockhardt, and Cipla on major declines.
[05:24:01 PM] => Neha: Which sectors look promising for the current year, which will give atleast returns with safety?
[05:25:50 PM] => VB : Neha, Oil & Gas drilling, Pharma and FMCG ( to a degree ) will outperform in this market scenario.
[05:26:52 PM] => Shaymaprasad : What's your view on quarterly financials of tech companies? What growth rate you expect the industry to grow this year?
[05:27:27 PM] => VB : I�m sorry, I am a technical analyst (chartist) and don�t really follow fundamentals extensively so am not qualified to comment in detail.
[05:29:58 PM] => VMudaliyar : Do you expect a recovery in the markets & Is it the time right to invest in equities?
[05:31:36 PM] => VB : Yes, the recovery will come definitely, and investing on substantial declines in fundamentally strong stories is very much advisable for discerning investors.
[05:32:48 PM] => Sanyukta: What do you suggest to people whose tech mutual funds are lying at Rs 3 to 4 ?
[05:33:26 PM] => VB : Sanyukta, there little you can do now except wait for a recovery and exit these funds at smewhat higher levels. The opportunity cost is great and you should simply debit this loss to learning experience.
[05:34:16 PM] => Thampan : Does ICICI Bank have any coustmersevice Web site regardind investments. Please give me the address.
[05:36:04 PM] => VB : Mr Thampan, please log on to www.icicidirect.com for details.
[05:37:07 PM] => Partho: Mutual funds have not given satisfactory returns, where should the small investor invest?
[05:38:24 PM] => VB : I firmly believe that a savvy investor can out - perform the mutual funds, since funds have limitations of law and heavy overheads and specialists salaries. Small investors should consider hiring personal financial advisors and also learn about investment processes in the bargain. A combination of equity and fixed income is preferrable due to stability of earnings.
[05:38:46 PM] => Ajay: Do you see a revival in the primary markets in the near future?
[05:39:32 PM] => VB : Ajay, unfortunately, in the short / medium term, I don�t see a recovery happening in the primary markets.
[05:40:55 PM] => Anand: Will the market go down drastically still? At what level can we enter in to the market?
[05:41:29 PM] => VB : Anand, markets have a good support at 2,800 and then at 2,600. Personally don�t foresee a more significant drop beyond these levels. However, if an unforeseen event in the ongoing war takes place ( chances are remote ) then one cant say. Even then, the downside is frankly limited.
[05:43:41 PM] => Mahesh : Is it a good time to get into IT scrips?
[05:44:37 PM] => VB : Mahesh, I would prefer to wait and watch for signs for a sustainable recovery before buying tech stocks. The effects of the Sept 11 attacks will reflect in the coming quarter.
[05:45:21 PM] => VishalC : What is your outlook on Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's and Cipla?
[05:46:37 PM] => VB : Mahesh, I would prefer to wait and watch for signs for a ustainable recovery before buying tech stocks. The effects of the Sept 11 attacks will reflect in the coming quarter.
[05:47:41 PM] => VishalC : What is your outlook on Ranbaxy, Dr. Reddy's and Cipla?
[05:48:06 PM] => VB : Vishal , these three counters are one of the most promising pharma companies and are future biotech plays. The potential is significant and returns can be quite high.
[05:48:53 PM] => AJalan : According to you which sectors will out perform Sensex?
[05:49:51 PM] => VB : I foresee the Pharma sector ( with biotech plays ) Oil & Gas drilling ( import substitution ) and to a certain degree FMCG outperforming the Sensex in the coming future.
[05:55:36 PM] => Myiris : Thats the end of the chat with Mr. Vijay Bhambwani
[05:56:28 PM] => Myiris : We thank you all for your participation
[05:57:35 PM] => Myiris : We thank Mr. Bhambwani for his insights and for making this a lively conversation.
[05:58:28 PM] => Myiris : We look forward to see you again in our next chat session on Monday
[05:58:39 PM] => Myiris : Bye for now
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