[04:17:07 PM] => Welcome to the Live Chat session :Mr Vignesh Eswar will be joining shortly
[04:30:34 PM] => DISCLAIMER
[04:30:48 PM] => Mr.Vignesh Eswar is the Market Analyst of Sharekhan.com. These are his personal views and not necessarily those of Sharekhan or SSKI. At the time of this conversation/chat, the he may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time.
[04:31:01 PM] => The views expressed by Mr.Vignesh Eswar is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Sharekhan from time to time may buy or sell in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed. None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:31:15 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr.Eswar have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:38:42 PM] => Welcome to the Live Char Session Mr Vignesh Eswar
[04:39:10 PM] => Khandelwal_pradeep : Do you think the market will be like this for the IT sector too in coming days? Is the current time for buying the OLD Economy stocks. What's about RIL in near future.
[04:40:17 PM] => VE - I think the IT sector is in the process of bottoming out it’s sell off from the February, 2000 levels. Given the changing earnings profile of the industry and the large ownership, this process of change will be very volatile. IT stocks are now creating a base in the face of large selling pressure at higher level.
[04:41:02 PM] => Given the fact that the old economy leaders are exhibiting a lot less volatility than the IT leaders, pradeep it seems like a good hedge to take some exposure to the select old economy stocks too.
[04:41:27 PM] => RIL as fallen below a long term uptrend that started in mid 1997. Given this, while the short term trend is up with targets at 360/380, I think the stock will struggle to resume its long term uptrend by moving above 410 levels.
[04:42:24 PM] => Thomasdevlin3556 : Do I buy Cipla ?
[04:43:43 PM] => VE - The answer to that thomas depends on your trading horizon. If you are a short term trader than you are better off selling CIPLA since it is distributing just under 1140 levels for the last 4 weeks. It is likely to come dwn to test the 850-900 levels in the coming weeks. The long term uptrend on the stock gets confirmed only above 1250 with targets that may go auto and even exceed the late 1999 peaks at the 1800 levels.
[04:45:07 PM] => Vikram_singh77 : Will rolling settlement boost day trading
[04:46:30 PM] => VE - Logically speaking, one would guess so Vikram. With the host of margins and payment obligations that are bound to come up, day trading would be seen as the only available (though not necessarily the best) option available to small traders. I think the entire method of trading and market behavior will change once (and if) rolling settlements are introduced. Lets wait and see.
[04:47:56 PM] => Babudash :In which month do you think the market is good for a new player to make an entry ?
[04:49:03 PM] => VE - I cant think of a better time to quote Mark Twain. He said, February, July-August and November and December are bad months for speculation. The other months when speculation is not advised are January, March, September- October, April and May. J any month is a good (or bad) time to enter the market. But normally volatility is high in february (budget), April-may, July-August and October-November because of results. If you are disciplined you can make money in the market anytime.
[04:50:25 PM] => Neha_dk :Who in your view can be held for the current (and a decaying) state of the stock market - is it just greed?
[04:51:28 PM] => VE: By decay I assume you are talking about the all-round bearishness in the markets Neha. Acute bearishness is caused by fear and panic and not greed. The February 2000 peak is a classic example of greed. But then this has been the same from the time adam was in play school. Fear will follow greed just as night follows day.
[04:55:43 PM] => Umesh58 : Kindly let me know about Ramco Systems
[04:58:01 PM] => VE: Ramco systems is one of the investment recommendations made by sharekhan. Check the site www.sharekhan.com and you will find all that you need on the company.
[04:58:30 PM] => m_addewala :The global tele shares which I bought for 260 and unfortunately sold in panic for 188 and today its current price is 210. Can I buy it now or wait for my 188 price, I am also worried about what would be SEBI's decision about the Badla, on 14
[04:59:44 PM] => VE Global Tele has found log term support at 97-100. While its unlikely to break below these levels, supply at higher levels is likely to keep the price from advancing too swiftly. The 208-210 levels are strong resistances (led the stock down on huge volumes) and once above the stock would attempt 280-360 levels.
[05:00:31 PM] => In any case, take this one lesson back with you from this chat session. Always use a stop loss. With a stop loss you would have defined the money you are prepared to loose to your trade and would have never exited in panic. We have a lot of material on sharekhan on stop losses and how they are useful. Check it out.
[05:01:14 PM] => Manoharshirol :Just now I have completed my MBA in finance so I would like make career in equity research so I would know about the future of the equity researchers.
[05:02:35 PM] => VE - My view is likely to be a little biased, manohar, I am an equity analyst. Stock markets are an extremely cyclical and risky industry. A high risk-high reward place to be in. Yes, there is a brilliant future to being an equity researcher, but make sure you join a good house and if you want your work to be judged fairly, you will never find a fairer judge and critic to how good or bad you are at your job than the stock market itself.
[05:04:08 PM] => Amit2604 :What is the revenue Model for Mutual Funds ?
[05:04:32 PM] => VE: That is a question I will leave well alone. Sorry Amit.
[05:05:05 PM] => Kganesh :Your views on Sensex?
[05:06:18 PM] => VE: I usually take no more than a three week view. And my three week view ganesh, is that the 3100 bottom will be tested once again if the sensex breaks below 3350. The upside to 3800-3900 comes into the picture once the sensex closes above 3630-3650, something it is struggling to do for the last 4 weeks. The coming week is likely to be bearish.
[05:09:34 PM] => Myiris: Please hang on,Mr Eswar is on a Call
[05:12:22 PM] => Kapadia.mehernosh : I have bought 600 shares of Kodak {india photo}at Rs380 now it is 220 I also bought 200 shares of ISPL {gillette}at 680 ] what shall i do - I also have investible funds of 15 lacs please advise 3-5 stocks for 36 % return
[05:12:59 PM] => VE Kodak is likely to struggle getting beyond 250 in the short term. 330-350 are strong resistance's to cross. The stock has not given any confirmed signals of reversing its slide though it has paused this week.
[05:13:36 PM] => ISPL (now Gillette India is forming a nice base with volumes. You may see price targeting 600+ in the coming week. This stock has been recommended by sharekhan as an investment. You may want to check the site for details on your stock.
[05:14:31 PM] => Ashish78: Do you believe that the suicide by a top broker in bombay is a sign of worse things to come?
[05:15:23 PM] => VE - Suicide at any time is really really sad. Though stock markets trading is a high pressure activity, suicide is really not the option. The market usually gives back what it takes, one just has to ride out the rough times. Ashish, I hope it is not a sign of worse things to come.
[05:16:42 PM] => Amitshah: Do you think there is another crash in the near future and that the bottom is far from over?
[05:17:28 PM] => VE: The markets will continue to be very choppy. Crashes and booms are a part of this story. I cant discount that. The way I see it, until the current bottom is taken out, I will work on the basis that the market has bottomed. That is the way of the trader.
[05:24:15 PM] => Virkamreddy21 :Why are mutual funds net sellers even though all Fund managers claim to be bullish?
[05:24:56 PM] => VE fund managers may be bullish, but they still have to hand over the money when their unit holders ask for it. To meet this redemption pressure they need to liquidate some holdings. Also one needs to understand that fund managers may think India is a great place to invest over the next 5 years but might also feel that stocks will be available say 30% down in the next three months. Obviously they will sell to take advantage of this short term bearishness
[05:25:57 PM] => Rohita :What do you think are the implications behind the story in the papers that UTI was buyers of K 10 stocks? What do you think was the reason?
[05:27:29 PM] => VE - Buying and selling is usually based on perception of value to the exclusion of everything else. If one is bearish based on valuations, he cant be blamed for selling and vice versa. The more important question would be if they made money on their trades. K10 stocks just happened to be the most traded high momentum stocks. Rohita, if you are asking if there was collusion of any kind, I really don’t know. 8-)
[05:29:07 PM] => Myiris: sorry friends, no more new questions please, Mr. Vignesh is already loaded with lots!!!
[05:31:24 PM] => Sunita_rao:What is the reason behind the high volatility in Indian markets? is this a global phenomena or is India an isolated case?
[05:32:11 PM] => VE High volatility s a feature of most world markets, India is not alone in this. The reason is that as the economy as a whole goes through a process of change and possible rerating, the prospects of individual sectors get reassessed. This translates into valuation of stocks. Since there are so many different (and powerful) viewpoints about valuation, price makes these huge moves to satisfy different perceptions.
[05:33:55 PM] => VikramShah :Is it a stock market or market of stocks?
[05:34:58 PM] => VE :The question finally. I think it is a market of stocks. Stocks are the name of the game, not the team (sector), not the captain(sensex) and certainly not the coach (the economy). The market is now looking at individual stocks and is not favoring any sector as a whole.
[05:40:21 PM] => Ramya_rao :Why is that trading is legal but gambling isn't?
[05:41:18 PM] => VE :Ramya, that is good tangential thinking. Thank God trading is legal. Or I would be out of a job. Gambling is illegal, or atleast controlled, since it’s purely a game of chance and luck. Trading on the other hand has some tried and tested science behind it. Trading stocks is an attempt at working the probabilities to your favour while controlling risk.
[05:42:56 PM] => Padmajakl :What is the role of SEBI? Is it functioning on a reactive basis rather than being pro active. Most of its reactions have been knee jerk
[05:43:38 PM] => VE :SEBI role is to regulate the way capital markets function. Since the capital markets are going through unprecedented changes it would be impossible to anticipate everything and have laws in place beforehand. Even if reactive I think SEBI is in control of a fluid situation and putting systems in place for the future.
[05:46:46 PM] => Haresh :The last time I asked this question the fund manager did not have the courage to answer it. After reading today's papers my doubts are more than reinforced - Is the repurchase price of UTI US 64 its true value. If Yes would you recommend it as the best investment in this falling market . - Will you be my Samaritan
[05:47:44 PM] => VE: haresh, I wish I could. But I don’t track mutual funds so I am clueless. Check myiris. They have some good stuff on mutual funds.
[05:48:40 PM] => Maddanna :How do rate HCL tech share??
[05:49:42 PM] => VE :HCL Tech is currently caught between support at 390-400 and resistance's at 450. Despite trading higher volumes this week, the price has not been able to break the 450 levels. This stock is stuck since once above 450 it gets into a trading range between 450-680. The short term on the stock looks weak
[05:55:06 PM] => Sanjaymahtani :Will I get to see an index of 3080 again to do some value picking ? if you do see a downswing do you expect this level to hold or will you see this market go to 2800 levels ?
[05:56:53 PM] => VE :If the sensex breaks below 3350, maybe you will see 3100 again. But in this case there are no guarantee's that 3080 will hold. So if you are looking to time the market, make sure 3100 holds before you put your money in. In any case value picking can be done even now. Don’t expect to catch the bottom or top. If you see value now, you should buy. And if you are trading, I hope you have a stop loss in place to get you out of an unfavorable market.
[05:58:52 PM] => Pateldipeshb : When you recommend hold long, then what exactly it means, for how many trading session we should hold the particular scrip, and if it slide below its stop loss than what exactly we should do?
[06:00:10 PM] => VE : Go long means buy. Hold long means hold on to your buy position. Do not sell. Do not buy more. The number of sessions to hold would depend on when your profit objective is reached.
[06:01:06 PM] => If the stop loss is broken, sell immediately if you are holding the stock. Infact on sharekhan’s trading site you can put in your ‘stop loss order. This will automatically sell for you In case you are not following the market. This is very important.
[06:05:02 PM] => sanjay_kapur : What do you believe are the sectors to invest in today? Are tech stock still a good buy? How does one identify a good stock?
[06:06:10 PM] => VE :so many questions! 8-) Though the Cement and Auto are currently looking good, the market is now stock specific and not sector specific. Individual stocks need to be watched. Techs can be bought but they are very volatile. So one needs to be quick to react to them. Don’t take a long term view on techs just yet.
[06:06:41 PM] => Your last question will take too long to answer, so I’l just direct you to www.myiris.com. You’ll find a lot of stuff there on how to identify a good stock to invest in.
[06:09:37 PM] => biks :Which way are the markets headed? Why is it that nobody was able to predict the crash of the markets?
[06:10:22 PM] => VE: In the coming week, the market are likely to be headed south or east. But by September we have a good chance that markets may be headed north. I really wish I had the market’s travel itinerary with me 8-).
[06:11:17 PM] => Nobody can read the markets perfectly. Which is why one always needs a contingency plan for when the markets go the other way.
[06:14:12 PM] => riteshrajan : What will be theimpact of Pizer setting up a 100% subsidiary? Should I sell my shares?
[06:15:53 PM] => VE I am a technical analyst. I don’t know the answer to that. But you will find an update on this issue today on www.sharekhan.com since Pfizer is a recommended stock
[06:18:03 PM] => sv : Are you married?
[06:18:24 PM] => VE yes sv, I am. 8-) My wife is an ecologist
[06:19:08 PM] => jigneshshah :Is it a good time to invest in IPO?
[06:19:51 PM] => VE No, unless a very very good issue comes our way. IPO markets flourish only if the secondary markets are in full swing. Keep an eye on sharekhan’s section on IPO’s.
[06:20:29 PM] => romourmind : Is it true that SEBI plans to ban all carry forward transactions from July 2nd?
[06:21:45 PM] => VE : That is the news. But they are still debating the issue and a final regulation is yet to come. Keep you fingers (and toes) crossed romourmind!
[06:22:23 PM] => Ayush : I have 100 DSQ shares at Rs 2300/-. Should I buy more of the same stock at these levels to equalize my costs.
[06:24:04 PM] => VE Ayush. This is truly sad. Please do not buy more to average (buy more of the same stock at lower levels). The thumb rule is that you never average a losing position. The braveheart portfolio on sharekhan has carried three articles on the pros and cons of averaging. Please find the time to read them.
[06:24:55 PM] => pateldipeshb : I have 200 shares of DSQ Soft, what do you recommend now for this scrip, I couldn't get punter's latest stop loss for DSQ Soft. Kindly suggest me for future action. Thanking You.
[06:26:23 PM] => VE The stop loss on DSQ was 93.90 and it has triggered. I think you should exit the position. Relook the stock above 100 for a 30% upside but don’t forget to use a stop loss. And please mail feedback@sharekhan.com with your details so that we can ensure you get your copy of the punter’s everyday.
[06:28:03 PM] => Sourav_sengupta: What is the view on Tata Power at 120 level?
[06:29:35 PM] => VE I like Tata power Saurav. For 4 weeks now it is coming under pressure between 120 and 130. Stay long with a stop loss at 113 for upsides to 130 and 145 after that. The bargain hunter portfolio on sharekhan has recommended this stock.
[06:30:27 PM] => Vedansh2000: What are the prospects of Colgate for FY02 and FY03 - or should the investment strategy be beyond 4 years, as in are the next two years prospects not exciting. I would appreciate an answer in some details, if possible?
[06:31:23 PM] => VE : I wouldn’t know about colgate as an investment vedansh, I am a trader. The braveheart portfolio just booked some neat profits on colgate that it picked up at 150 levels two weeks ago. Currently it is slowly weakening and should retest the 165-170 levels.
[06:35:05 PM] => Kganesh: Where is Infy headed from here?
[06:36:20 PM] => VE Infosys is finding lot of supply at the 4100 levels. Once above this it should target 4400/4800 very quickly. Currently I think its downside is limited to 3570-3600.
[06:37:11 PM] => Rupeshg_India: What do you feel for Satyam Computer?
[06:38:17 PM] => VE Satyam is in a trading zone Rupesh, between 220-248-255. Despite some large institutional buying, the stock is still coming under pressure. There are some long term trendlines at 270 and 295 which I think will mark its upside potential.
[06:39:49 PM] => Ashishk: can you explain derivatives using an easy example?
[06:41:17 PM] => VE : I can but I rather you go to the futures school on sharekhan and see for yourself. The illustration.
[06:45:03 PM] => Sachindot: Should badla be banned or not? What is your opinion? Sir, those who are in favour of badla had no justification except volumes, but what is the use of having huge volumes if market itself is not safe? Your comments please.
[06:46:20 PM] => VE: If badla is banned then another carry-forward/ risk hedging mechanism like futures should be in place. Though volumes will dip initially, they are bound to pick up one the players realize that they have little choice and find ways to work with the new system. And Sachin, the markets are only as safe as you make them. With proper trading and investing systems, the markets can be a great place to be in.
[06:47:33 PM] => Sivaraman: How does Tata Tea and Tata Power look?
[06:48:08 PM] => VE I like Tata power sivaraman. For 4 weeks now it is coming under pressure between 120 and 130. Stay long with a stop loss at 113 for upsides to 130 and 145 after that. The bargain hunter portfolio on sharekhan has recommended this stock.
[06:48:25 PM] => Tata tea is attempting to consolidate its position after bottoming out at 167. It may take time to move up however.
[06:48:55 PM] => Rupeshg_India: Which stocks would u list best ten in terms of medium term investment?
[06:49:56 PM] => VE Please check www.myiris.com. Apart from the names, you can also get the reasons why they are good investments.
[06:51:04 PM] => Ketanpareikh: With so many brokers getting into the online bandwagon, what is your prediction on online trading in India and how reliable and smooth do you think it's going to be?
[06:52:23 PM] => VE Online trading is THE thing of the future. It is still in its infancy now, but everyday people are realizing its benefits. And this trend is very evident on sharekhans online daily trading turnover. There is nothing to stop online trading systems to be as reliable and fast as those of the NSE and BSE terminals. Technology will never be a limitation.
[06:53:27 PM] => Yash93: What will be SEBI decision on Monday and its likely market effect on either way?
[06:54:07 PM] => VE your guess is as good as mine yash.
[06:56:50 PM] => Hsbandhari: What is your opinion about UB?
[06:57:14 PM] => VE We like UB. The Braveheart trading portfolio on sharekhan has bought UB last week. Check out the site for details.
[06:58:00 PM] => Rinvy: How is the market looking & will the rolling settlement kill it?
[06:58:30 PM] => VE The introduction of rolling settlements may temporarily create bearishness but I don’t expect it to last. People will get used to the rolling settlements if they do not have a choice and will start doing volumes again.
[06:58:58 PM] => Jaswant: What do you think of Zee, Aftek Infosys for buying in current market scenario?
[06:59:54 PM] => VE - From a trading perspective I like ZEE. The sharekhan punter is already long on the stocks and sitting on over 8% open profits. Aftek is one of our investment ideas.
[07:00:09 PM] => Chintu: Where do you see the market heading from here?
[07:00:37 PM] => VE Chintu, I have already answered this can you scroll up?
[07:01:00 PM] => Rinkan: Should an investor who wants to play safe buy stocks or derivatives? Whats the time one can hold future index?
[07:01:33 PM] => VE He should do both one to hedge against the other.
[07:02:14 PM] => Niraj Dhanky: It appears that even despite net trading, it is only full time pros who should attempt to follow you. Your strategy of targeting higher prices while keeping SL is not supported by Sharekhan Site's software, as it will not accept that kind of order. Any Comments.
[07:02:44 PM] => VE Mr Niraj, sharekhan has revamped and rebuilt its trading portal. It has all the features you’d want and then some more!!! Stop loss triggers, market and limit orders, off the market orders, good till orders, alerts, account and portfolio trackers, the works!! Please check it out.
[07:04:26 PM] => Tikookhan: One Week , four week and three months view?
[07:04:46 PM] => VE 1week-down. 4 week sideways. 12 week-hopefully up.
[07:05:56 PM] => Sajal Sheth: I have waited for market to fall from 5000 to 4000 to 3100. I am still waiting ...Is it a good time to Invest and in which scrip for a medium term (one year)..Please suggest. Thanks.
[07:06:17 PM] => VE: I think it is, especially on some of the old economy favorites. But instead of defining the holding period (1 year), define the return. I think a good 30%-50% return from this point is possible if you pick the right stocks. As always, don’t loose more than you are willing to.
[07:06:51 PM] => C. R. SRINATH: I AM HOLDING DSQ SOFTWARE, ZEE, APTECH, GLOBAL
[07:07:11 PM] => TELE, HFCL, SONATA SOFTWARE
[07:07:27 PM] => 1. I WANT TO KNOW THE FUTURE OF HOLDING THIS SHARE
[07:07:32 PM] => 2. IF I WANT EXIT IN WHICH SHARE I HAVE NOT INVEST
[07:08:46 PM] => ( MY PURCHASE COST IS 5 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT MARKET SHARE FOR ALL THE SHARES I HAVE MENTIONED)
[07:09:05 PM] => WHAT IS THE FUTURE OF DSQ SOFTWARE, SONATA, HFCL,GLOBAL, ZEE, APTECH
[07:09:24 PM] => VE that’s too much to respond to on chat srinath. Why don’t you get in touch with one of our franchisees in your city? They should be able to help you with a view.
[07:09:53 PM] => Folks, I hope you enjoyed this chat session as much as I did. But I promise to answer the ones I missed offline and Myiris.com has promised to provide you the complete transcript offline.Trade well!
[07:11:53 PM] => Myiris : Thank you Mr Vignesh Eswar for your co-operation and answering most of the questions. It was really a lively and interactive session
[07:13:37 PM] => Thank you all the participants, and don't forget to log on for our next chat session on Monday, May 14. Our guest for next session is Mr Rajiv Anand, Fund Manager Fixed Income - Standard Chartered AMC
[07:14:07 PM] => Bye for now