The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will announce the sixth bi-monthly monetary policy review, 2014-15 on Tuesday, Feb. 03, 2015. In a surprise move, the RBI cut the key policy rate by 25bps on Jan. 15, 2015, two weeks ahead of its scheduled monetary policy review.
Commenting on the same, Asish Vaidya, Head of trading, DBS Bank, India said, "In the upcoming policy due on Feb. 3, 2015 do not expect a rate cut as the January 15 policy statement clearly articulated that the key to any further monetary policy easing would be dependent on the upcoming data, creditable fiscal consolidation and addressing supply side measures. We cannot expect the conduct of monetary policy to be swayed by short term market moves, developments and expectations. However, the rate cycle has certainly turned and I would expect at least another 75bps cuts in this calendar year starting post budget."
Meanwhile, Pranjul Bhandhari, chief India economist, HSBC India said, "We now expect the RBI to cut the policy repo rate by 75bp, higher than our earlier call of 50bp," Moreover, we expect rate cuts to be front-loaded, given disinflationary forces are at their strongest, growth is sluggish and there are lags (of about two quarters) in monetary transmission. In particular, if the process of un-stalling stuck investment projects gathers pace, an environment of lower lending rates would aid the subsequent onset of a new capex cycle, which typically follows un-stalling activity with a two quarter lag."
Edelweiss Research said, "In the upcoming monetary policy on February 3, the RBI is likely to maintain status quo with a dovish stance. This expectation is based on Central Bank's guidance in its last policy document that further easing is dependent on incoming data, particularly with regards to inflation and fiscal stance."
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