The Indian government's October 18, decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies that are the principal retailers of petroleum products, says Fitch Ratings. The decision is also likely to lead to more private firms entering the diesel market in the medium term, resulting in greater competition.
The decision to deregulate diesel prices is well-timed in light of the recent decline in international energy prices. The expected direct impact of both the diesel reform and natural gas price hike on Fitch's headline fiscal forecasts is limited; but the fiscal balances will be more robust to future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market. Furthermore, implementation of these politically sensitive reforms demonstrates that the government continues to roll out structural reforms gradually, and suggests that more far-reaching structural reforms may be in the pipeline.
The national oil marketing companies- Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum-will be the principal direct beneficiaries of deregulation, and the decision is positive for these companies' standalone credit profiles. Under the previous rules, these retailers had to sell diesel (accounting for 40% of fuel sold) below market prices, and were partially compensated for the losses through the federal budget. Furthermore, the price control and subsidy system affected the working-capital positions of these companies, as there was a timing mismatch between the recognition of losses on sales and compensation from government - leading to higher debt.
The other beneficiaries are likely to be upstream oil companies such as Oil and Natural Gas and Oil India, which also bore a large part of the subsidy burden. These companies offered a USD 56 a barrel discount to the national oil marketing companies-especially challenging when considering the fall in crude prices to around USD 85. Fitch expects that the discount is likely to come down.
Fitch anticipates that deregulation will result in heightened competition for the existing dominant national retailers, and could hurt their profitability over the medium to long term. By allowing diesel to be marketed profitably, the sector will once again be attractive for private companies that had left when price restrictions were put in place. A large portion of the output of private refiners is exported, due in part to the restrictions placed on domestic sales. Private firms such as Reliance Industries and Essar Oil are likely to restart idled diesel retail operations, and should ultimately become more significant players. Their impact on the sector would not be seen immediately, though, as they would have to play catch-up to restart and establish retail infrastructure.