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Key things to watch in top IT firms' Q1 earnings
Source: IRIS | 04 Jul, 2014, 11.40AM
Rating: NAN / 5 stars.
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Indian Tier-1 IT companies' aggregate USD revenue growth likely to improve to 3.4% qq in Q1 FY2015 as against 1.9% q-q growth in Q4, as per Nomura. It expects a 100-200bp q-q drop in EBITDA margins at Tier 1 IT companies on wage hikes, visa cost impact and INR appreciation of ~2.5% on an average. The aggregate earnings growth for Tier 1 IT is likely to be at nearly 24% y-y in Q1FY15.

Company commentary should be watched more closely for demand strength at the start of the year; performance in troubled verticals like hi-tech/retail; and discretionary outlook.

Infosys is likely to retain its guidance of 7-9% USD revenue growth for FY15F. The key to watch would be management strategy on increased investments for growth vs. focus on margin improvement. The retention of its FY15F guidance might be taken positively by the market, expects Nomura.

TCS may reiterate its bullish outlook on FY15F growth (being better than the 16% growth in FY14), according to Nomura. "A pickup in growth in the US and the outlook on BFSI would be key catalysts."

Wipro is likely to guide for 2-4% q-q USD revenue growth in 2QFY15, as per Nomura. "The key catalyst for Wipro's could be the translation of the recent strong deal flow announcements into revenue and the sustainability of the same. Any margin impacts of these large deals, some of which have people takeovers, will be keenly watched. A 3-5% q-q USD revenue growth guidance for 2QFY15 will likely be taken positively."

"Besides sustaining the strong growth momentum in Infrastructure Management Services (IMS), two key catalysts for HCL Technologies will be better core software growth and company suggesting a target EBIT margin band of 20-21% (vs. 3Q margins of 24.7%). Any positive comments on the CSC partnership could provide upside surprises to growth," Nomura said.

Cognizant may keep its FY14 revenue growth guidance unchanged at 16.5%+ and guide for a 5%+ growth for 3QFY14F, it opined. The commentary on US, BFSI and healthcare will be important to watch.

At Tech Mahindra, after the near-USD 1.3 billion+ of deal announcements over the past four quarters, the key thing to watch will be the continuation of deal win momentum and given the material gains seen from INR depreciation, the company's ability to hold margins in an INR appreciation scenario.



Tier 1 IT Firms Jun'14E Jun'13 y-y (%) Mar'14 q-q (%)
TCS          
Revenue (USD mn) 3,662 3,165 15.7 3,503 4.5
Revenue (INR mn) 219,734 179,871 22.2 215,511 2
PAT (INR mn) 46,693 37,962 23 52,967 -11.8
Dil. EPS (INR) 23.9 19.4 23 27.1 -11.8
EBITDA margin (%) 28.9 28.6 20 bps 30.9 (200) bps
Infosys          
Revenue (USD mn) 2,139 1,991 7.4 2,092 2.2
Revenue (INR mn) 128,340 112,670 13.9 128,750 -0.3
PAT (INR mn) 26,844 23,740 13.1 29,920 -10.3
Dil. EPS (INR) 47 41.5 13.1 52.4 -10.3
EBITDA margin (%) 26.5 26.5 0 bps 28.3 (180) bps
Wipro          
IT Revenue (USD mn) 1,740 1,588 9.6 1,720 1.2
IT Revenue (INR mn) 104,425 89,363 16.9 106,193 -1.7
Revenue (INR mn) 112,182 97,294 15.3 116,535 -3.7
PAT (INR mn) 21,411 16,233 31.9 22,265 -3.8
Dil. EPS (INR) 8.7 6.6 31.8 9 -3.9
IT margin (%) 23.3 20 330 bps 24.5 (130) bps
HCL          
Revenue (USD mn) 1,410 1,228 14.8 1,361 3.6
Revenue (INR mn) 84,588 69,800 21.2 83,490 1.3
PAT (INR mn) 16,114 11,920 35.2 16,240 -0.8
Dil. EPS (INR) 22.8 16.9 35 23 -0.8
EBITDA margin (%) 25.9 23.1 270 bps 26.7 (90) bps
Cognizant          
Revenue (USD mn) 2,520 2,161 16.6 2,422 4
PAT (USD mn) 355 300 18.1 349 1.7
Dil. EPS (USD) 0.58 0.49 17.3 0.57 1.7
EBITDA margin (%) 20.4 21.7 (130) bps 20.8 (40) bps
Tech Mahindra          
Revenue (USD mn) 853 724 17.9 825 3.4
Revenue (INR mn) 51,036 41,032 24.4 50,581 0.9
PAT (INR mn) 6,915 6,488 6.6 6,025 14.8
Dil. EPS (INR) 32.2 30.5 5.5 28 14.8
EBITDA margin (%) 20.2 21.1 (90) bps 21.2 (100) bps
iGATE          
Revenue (USD mn) 311 283 9.8 302 2.9
PAT (USD mn) 32 30 7.6 32 2
Dil. EPS (USD) 0.42 0.4 3.4 0.41 1.1
EBITDA margin (%) 21.4 20.5 90 bps 23.4 (200) bps
Hexaware          
Revenue (USD mn) 99 95 4.4 96 3.4
Revenue (INR mn) 5,941 5,366 10.7 5,889 0.9
PAT (INR mn) 886 979 -9.5 703 26.1
Dil. EPS (INR) 2.9 3.3 -10 2.3 26
EBITDA margin (%) 20.2 23.7 (350) bps 19.2 90 bps
Mphasis          
Revenue (USD mn) 250 265 41.2 172 -3.1
Revenue (INR mn) 14,936 15,398 45.5 10,299 -3.3
PAT (INR mn) 1,783 1,926 38.9 1,221 -2.6
Dil. EPS (INR) 8.5 9.2 38.9 5.8 -2.6
EBITDA margin (%) 17.2 23.7 (650) bps 17.1 10 bps
Source: Nomura


 

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