Key things to watch in top IT firms' Q1 earnings
Source: IRIS | 04 Jul, 2014, 11.40AM
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Rating: NAN / 5 stars. |
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Indian Tier-1 IT companies' aggregate USD revenue growth likely to improve to 3.4% qq in Q1 FY2015 as against 1.9% q-q growth in Q4, as per Nomura. It expects a 100-200bp q-q drop in EBITDA margins at Tier 1 IT companies on wage hikes, visa cost impact and INR appreciation of ~2.5% on an average. The aggregate earnings growth for Tier 1 IT is likely to be at nearly 24% y-y in Q1FY15. Company commentary should be watched more closely for demand strength at the start of the year; performance in troubled verticals like hi-tech/retail; and discretionary outlook.
Infosys is likely to retain its guidance of 7-9% USD revenue growth for FY15F. The key to watch would be management strategy on increased investments for growth vs. focus on margin improvement. The retention of its FY15F guidance might be taken positively by the market, expects Nomura.
TCS may reiterate its bullish outlook on FY15F growth (being better than the 16% growth in FY14), according to Nomura. "A pickup in growth in the US and the outlook on BFSI would be key catalysts."
Wipro is likely to guide for 2-4% q-q USD revenue growth in 2QFY15, as per Nomura. "The key catalyst for Wipro's could be the translation of the recent strong deal flow announcements into revenue and the sustainability of the same. Any margin impacts of these large deals, some of which have people takeovers, will be keenly watched. A 3-5% q-q USD revenue growth guidance for 2QFY15 will likely be taken positively."
"Besides sustaining the strong growth momentum in Infrastructure Management Services (IMS), two key catalysts for HCL Technologies will be better core software growth and company suggesting a target EBIT margin band of 20-21% (vs. 3Q margins of 24.7%). Any positive comments on the CSC partnership could provide upside surprises to growth," Nomura said.
Cognizant may keep its FY14 revenue growth guidance unchanged at 16.5%+ and guide for a 5%+ growth for 3QFY14F, it opined. The commentary on US, BFSI and healthcare will be important to watch.
At Tech Mahindra, after the near-USD 1.3 billion+ of deal announcements over the past four quarters, the key thing to watch will be the continuation of deal win momentum and given the material gains seen from INR depreciation, the company's ability to hold margins in an INR appreciation scenario.
Tier 1 IT Firms | Jun'14E | Jun'13 | y-y (%) | Mar'14 | q-q (%) | TCS | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 3,662 | 3,165 | 15.7 | 3,503 | 4.5 | Revenue (INR mn) | 219,734 | 179,871 | 22.2 | 215,511 | 2 | PAT (INR mn) | 46,693 | 37,962 | 23 | 52,967 | -11.8 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 23.9 | 19.4 | 23 | 27.1 | -11.8 | EBITDA margin (%) | 28.9 | 28.6 | 20 bps | 30.9 | (200) bps | Infosys | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 2,139 | 1,991 | 7.4 | 2,092 | 2.2 | Revenue (INR mn) | 128,340 | 112,670 | 13.9 | 128,750 | -0.3 | PAT (INR mn) | 26,844 | 23,740 | 13.1 | 29,920 | -10.3 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 47 | 41.5 | 13.1 | 52.4 | -10.3 | EBITDA margin (%) | 26.5 | 26.5 | 0 bps | 28.3 | (180) bps | Wipro | | | | | | IT Revenue (USD mn) | 1,740 | 1,588 | 9.6 | 1,720 | 1.2 | IT Revenue (INR mn) | 104,425 | 89,363 | 16.9 | 106,193 | -1.7 | Revenue (INR mn) | 112,182 | 97,294 | 15.3 | 116,535 | -3.7 | PAT (INR mn) | 21,411 | 16,233 | 31.9 | 22,265 | -3.8 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 8.7 | 6.6 | 31.8 | 9 | -3.9 | IT margin (%) | 23.3 | 20 | 330 bps | 24.5 | (130) bps | HCL | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 1,410 | 1,228 | 14.8 | 1,361 | 3.6 | Revenue (INR mn) | 84,588 | 69,800 | 21.2 | 83,490 | 1.3 | PAT (INR mn) | 16,114 | 11,920 | 35.2 | 16,240 | -0.8 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 22.8 | 16.9 | 35 | 23 | -0.8 | EBITDA margin (%) | 25.9 | 23.1 | 270 bps | 26.7 | (90) bps | Cognizant | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 2,520 | 2,161 | 16.6 | 2,422 | 4 | PAT (USD mn) | 355 | 300 | 18.1 | 349 | 1.7 | Dil. EPS (USD) | 0.58 | 0.49 | 17.3 | 0.57 | 1.7 | EBITDA margin (%) | 20.4 | 21.7 | (130) bps | 20.8 | (40) bps | Tech Mahindra | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 853 | 724 | 17.9 | 825 | 3.4 | Revenue (INR mn) | 51,036 | 41,032 | 24.4 | 50,581 | 0.9 | PAT (INR mn) | 6,915 | 6,488 | 6.6 | 6,025 | 14.8 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 32.2 | 30.5 | 5.5 | 28 | 14.8 | EBITDA margin (%) | 20.2 | 21.1 | (90) bps | 21.2 | (100) bps | iGATE | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 311 | 283 | 9.8 | 302 | 2.9 | PAT (USD mn) | 32 | 30 | 7.6 | 32 | 2 | Dil. EPS (USD) | 0.42 | 0.4 | 3.4 | 0.41 | 1.1 | EBITDA margin (%) | 21.4 | 20.5 | 90 bps | 23.4 | (200) bps | Hexaware | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 99 | 95 | 4.4 | 96 | 3.4 | Revenue (INR mn) | 5,941 | 5,366 | 10.7 | 5,889 | 0.9 | PAT (INR mn) | 886 | 979 | -9.5 | 703 | 26.1 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 2.9 | 3.3 | -10 | 2.3 | 26 | EBITDA margin (%) | 20.2 | 23.7 | (350) bps | 19.2 | 90 bps | Mphasis | | | | | | Revenue (USD mn) | 250 | 265 | 41.2 | 172 | -3.1 | Revenue (INR mn) | 14,936 | 15,398 | 45.5 | 10,299 | -3.3 | PAT (INR mn) | 1,783 | 1,926 | 38.9 | 1,221 | -2.6 | Dil. EPS (INR) | 8.5 | 9.2 | 38.9 | 5.8 | -2.6 | EBITDA margin (%) | 17.2 | 23.7 | (650) bps | 17.1 | 10 bps | Source: Nomura |
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