24 July, 2014 19:45 IST
News
`Buy` Lupin; target Rs 521: Emkay
Source: IRIS Exclusive (25-JAN-12)
Comments  |  Post Comment

Emkay Global Financial Services has maintained `Buy` on Lupin with a price target of Rs 521 as against the current market price (CMP) of Rs 446 in its report dated Jan. 24, 2012. The broking house gave the following rationale:

Revenue growth led by robust domestic biz and Rupee depreciation:

> 30% growth in domestic business driven by strong organic growth (23% growth) and contribution from Lilly deal (Rs 270 million)

> US Formulations witnessed growth of 23% in INR and 12% in USD (18% growth in branded & 9% in generics), with launch of 3 OC`s

> Growth in branded formulation was led by Suprax (grew by 21%) and Antara (grew 8%)

> Company has withdrawn it`s at risk launched product Fortamet on back of Preliminary Injunction. Thus company’s 180 days is at risk:

> Japan biz grew 43% INR growth (23% excluding I`rom) and 22% Yen growth

> Emerging Markets (South Africa, Philippines ) also witnessed growth of 42% Margin expansion led by INR depreciation which is not sustainable

> EBITDA margins expanded 85bps YoY and 327bps QoQ to 20.5%

> PAT margins contracted 191bps YoY due to increase in depreciation, interest and tax and improved 18bps QoQ to 12.9%

Going forward

> In the US, Lupin has guided for 25 ANDA launches in FY13 including 10 OCs. Management has also guided for launch of Yaz and Yasmin to happen in FY13

> New launches in US like Solodyn (45, 90, and 135mg), Tricor, Combivir and Seasonale will lead to 33% CAGR in base US business over FY11-14E

> In the domestic segment we expect company to witness strong growth at 15% CAGR for FY12-FY14E

Valuations:

We expect Lupin to report 19% revenue growth in FY12E, 25% growth in FY13E and 15% growth in FY14E. We expect EBIDTA margins to move from 20.4% in FY11 to 18.8% in FY12, 19.7% in FY13 and 20.6% in FY14. Earnings will grow by 21% CAGR over FY12-14E. We maintain Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs521 (20x FY13E earnings). At CMP, the stock is trading at 21x FY12E and 17x FY13E EPS.

Click here to view full report

Disclaimer: IRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for its web site. Information has been obtained by IRIS from sources which it considers reliable. However, IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website.



Lupin Limited   (Q,N,C,F)*


Live News
Capital Bank Financial Q2 profit jumps, meets forecast - 24-Jul-2014 19:25
Lilly Eli Q2 profit plunges but still beats estimates - 24-Jul-2014 18:58
Sallie Mae Q2 earnings plummet, but meet estimates - 24-Jul-2014 18:48
WesBanco Q2 earnings climb, beat expectations - 24-Jul-2014 18:36
Alaska Air Q2 profit surges but misses estimate - 24-Jul-2014 18:20
10-year G-sec yield falls marginally to 8.7% - 24-Jul-2014 18:17
Citrix Q2 profit drop, but beats estimates - 24-Jul-2014 18:11
Texas Capital Q2 profit jumps, beats forecast - 24-Jul-2014 18:01
Govt approves 19 FDI proposals worth Rs 23.26 bn - 24-Jul-2014 18:00
Dunkin' Brands Q2 profit rise meets forecast - 24-Jul-2014 17:59
Teradyne Q2 earnings surge, beat estimates - 24-Jul-2014 17:48
more...
* Q - Quote , N - News , C - Chart , F - Financials
Comments Post comment 
 Post Comment
Name Email
Comment
Security Code type   tmkybn into this box
Home  |   Shares  |   F&O  |   Mutual Funds  |   Loans  |   Insurance  |   News Centre
Wealth Tracker  |   Newsletters  |   Tax Corner  |   NRI Centre  |   Forums  |   E-mail  |   Advertise
© All rights reserved. IRIS Business Services Limited
A Disclaimer