ICICI Prudential Life (IPRU) posted 23% YoY growth in new business premium, led by a steady traction in both regular and single premium business. APE in 4Q grew 27% YoY (22% beat, 27% YoY decline in 9MFY21), led by a 106% growth in Non-Linked Savings APE. Annuity APE grew 215% YoY (120% for FY21), while linked APE growth recovered to 11% YoY.

Persistency improved across most cohorts, with 13th month persistency at 84.8% (higher than pre-COVID levels). VNB margin moderated to 23.6% (25.1% in FY21), led by moderation in Protection mix.

Commenting on the valuation, Motilal Oswal Institutional Equities said, "Annuity/Non-Linked Savings segments are likely to see healthy growth and should help drive premium growth. We expect the ULIP business to revive gradually owing to a benign base and addition of new banca partners. Persistency trends have improved across cohorts/products."

The broking firm expects a further recovery in coming quarters as the mix of Protection/Non-Linked Savings continues to improve, both of which have a higher persistency rate. "We estimate IPRU to deliver ~25%/26.5% CAGR in new business APE/VNB growth over FY21-23E, led by stable margin and controlled opex, enabling 15% growth in operating RoEV. Maintain Buy with a TP of Rs 600/share (2.3x FY23E EV and 16.6x FY23E EVOP)."

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