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Experts see no rate cut in August 4 RBI policy
Source: IRIS | 03 Aug, 2015, 11.12AM
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will be announcing its third bimonthly credit policy meet on August 4, 2015. It is expected that the RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan will announce status quo on policy rates tomorrow. In the previous policy review, the RBI reduced repo and reverse repo rates by 25 basis points to 7.25% and 6.25% respectively. CRR and SLR was unchanged at 4% and 21.5% respectively.

Myiris collated expectations of economists and market experts on RBI monetary policy. The same are listed below:

Pranjul Bhandari, chief India economist, HSBC:

''Rains remain erratic and food prices spiked in June, though prices have eased in July. Growth recovery indicators provide mixed signals, global commodity prices have fallen again after a momentary rise, monetary transmission remains incomplete, and the timing of the Fed's lift-off depends on incoming data. In light of these unclear trends and unfolding data, we expect the RBI to remain on hold on 4 August and reiterate its data-dependent stance.

By the end of August, the entire trajectory of rains will be known. Next month's CPI will confirm if the June spike was a one-off, and the next few months will determine if the bout of soft global commodity prices will last. Another month's services PMI will reveal whether the fall was indeed a one-off. And by early October, we will get indications if private sector investment is picking up at all. Our base case is for no more rate cuts. However, if rains remain non-disruptive and the RBI's 6% inflation target for January 2016 is within reach, space for a final 25bp cut in 4Q could open up, but not much more.''

Indranil Sen Gupta, India economist, Bank of America Merrill Lynch:

''We expects RBI governor Raghuram Rajan to pause on rates on Tuesday to await further clarity on the monsoon and allow expected September 17 Fed hike to play out. At the same time, he will likely strike a dovish note to reiterate that the door is open for further rate cuts to support growth. Looking ahead, we expect the RBI to cut another 50bp with inflation well set on its 'under-6%' January 2016 target,'' it said. With rains at 96% of normal and markets taking a possible September Fed hike in their stride today, we are advancing our next 25bp RBI repo rate cut to September 29 from February 2. We continue to expect a final rate cut on February 2.''

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra):

"The RBI is likely to wait and watch on rates in its third bimonthly credit policy meet in August. There is room for RBI to cut rates by another 25bp; however, a more appropriate time for a rate cut would be 2HFY16. Amid evolving growth-inflation dynamics, we expect the policy stance to reflect RBI's continued intention to anchor both inflation and inflationary expectations. This has become even more important for RBI after its agreement with the government of India to follow a framework of inflation targeting."

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank):

''The policy rate cut by the RBI in its third bi-monthly policy appears bleak. RBI is likely to maintain status quo on rates in its bi-monthly policy meet on August 4. The rising trend in inflation observed during the last two months and the rainfall deficits are expected to weigh over the considerations of weak economic performance (slack IIP, trade, investment numbers and bank credit offtake).''

Disclaimer: IRIS has taken due care and caution in compilation of data for its web site. Information has been obtained by IRIS from sources which it considers reliable. However, IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website.

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