[04:25:33 PM] => Welcome to the Live Chat Session
[04:26:23 PM] => Our today's Guest is Mr Jayesh Patel - Head Research - LKP Shares & Securities Ltd
[04:27:29 PM] => Myiris: Mr. Jayesh Patel will begin the session in a moment

[04:27:40 PM] => DISCLAIMER

[04:28:38 PM] => Mr. Jayesh Patel is the Head Research at LKP Shares & Securities Ltd. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Jayesh Patel may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below , although holdings may change at any time.
[04:29:22 PM] => The views expressed by Mr. Jayesh Patel is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Jayesh Patel, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed. None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.

[04:29:54 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Jayesh Patel have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.

[04:30:32 PM] => Myiris: Shall we begin the session Mr Patel

[04:31:05 PM] => JP: Yes, let's begin

[04:32:48 PM] => Mgandhi: dear sir, what are your comments on the cement stocks
[04:33:16 PM] => JP: Cement prices in most centres have dipped in the last 1 ½ months owing to rains and poor cement demand. Demand is expected to pick up following good rainfall in deficit centres like Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, etc. Stocks that looks good in the sector are ACC, Grasim and L&T.

[04:33:48 PM] => Amits: where do you see the stock market going in the next couple of months?
[04:34:52 PM] => JP: I see the stock market moving sideways at least for the next 1-2 quarters. While the stock market has already discounted most of the negatives in the market, the Sensex presently in a consolidation mode which could go on for a while. Hence, over the next couple of months, it will be a sideways movement. We expect a turnaround sometime in the first quarter of the CY2002.

[04:35:54 PM] => Blanche: With non food credit refusing to pick up how much more patience should I retain to envisage a change in the direction of the economy - or should I JUST PRAY and hope that this government can wake up and pull a rabbit out of a hat
[04:36:32 PM] => JP: The poor nonfood credit is just a reflection of the poor industrial production figures that we have been reporting for the past few months, hence it is not a ‘new negative’ in that sense.
[04:37:12 PM] => JP: Turnaround predictions are extremely difficult to make at present. Also, the uncertain US economy is not helping the matter. There is no rabbit government’s hat! The recovery will be a slow painful process. But this is not to suggest that the stock market will also remain bearish for long. The market works more on the ‘future discounting’, hence the market may move up much before the economic turnaround.

[04:38:01 PM] => Dinesh: give comments on futures and options
[04:38:43 PM] => JP: Futures and Options presently is marred with low volumes on the Indian Bourses. Futures provide good opportunity to speculate in absence of badla. It offers leveraging to the extent nearly 6 times the capital invested. Similarly, even Options offer an opportunity to speculate. Also, these products provide an excellent hedging mechanism.
[04:39:11 PM] => JP: At present these products suffers from the fact that investors/speculators have limited understanding of them. Once the investors get a good grip on these products, their turnover is likely to shoot up.

[04:39:43 PM] => Trader90: Should one look for trading opportunities at counters like Satyam, Infosys and Zee or hold on to these scrips from a medium term perspective
[04:40:32 PM] => JP: These stocks are likely to fall further and has a room for at least 10-15% downside from the current price, hence if you are planning to trade in these stocks, maybe you should hold on for sometime.

[04:41:35 PM] => Trader90: Is it a good time to buy into RPL, considering that the company's performance seems to be improving with every quarter.
[04:42:27 PM] => JP: Only if you are a real long-term buyer - say wanting to hold stock for over one year should you buy RPL right now.

[04:42:57 PM] => Cag: Would index Funds be a better bet than individual stocks at this point of time?
[04:44:12 PM] => JP: Considering that the market is near its lows and outlook on individual stocks is uncertain, it is much better to invest in Index Fund, esp. if one does'nt’t have the right advisor who could recommend quality stock picks.

[04:44:40 PM] => Sampras: in this situation where do you see the debt market going when compared to equities
[04:45:36 PM] => JP: Yields are likely to fall on debt market instruments going forward. Hence the best avenue to put your money is in select stocks or in bank fixed-deposit!

[04:46:09 PM] => Ketanh: What portfolio you would suggest an investor to go for if he has to make quick money?
[04:46:43 PM] => JP: One can consistently lose quick money, but can never make it on a sustainable basis, hence never ever try to make quick money.

[04:49:05 PM] => Rohitp: With redemption’s in equity funds at its near peaks - no fresh investment in equity MF’s, no liquidity how long before the FII becomes tired and starts to sell since he is finally here to make money. How long do u think that he will find our stocks "ATTRACTIVE" and when they do sell who will stand in their path - US Investors - what will be the faith of the market then 2500!
[04:49:35 PM] => JP: The market condition is bearish, but it is not as bad as you are sounding. FIIs will not sell at the current levels. In fact, if you have noticed, even during the past few months when the market has been bearish, FIIs have been net investors.
[04:50:07 PM] => JP: Mutual funds, no doubt are facing redemption pressures, but it is not as acute so as to force them to sell their real core holding in desperation. The retail investor is already out of the market since long. Hence, we do not expect large-scale selling from certain set of investor going forward.

[04:50:36 PM] => Sahil007: First it was Disinvestment stories then came the NBFC story, Then came Fertilizer story, after which the petrochemicals boom. Offlate it was TMT then Cement and now pharma - the story life cycles are now happening at a faster pace - Where does a LONG TERM INVESTOR put his monies
[04:51:29 PM] => JP: Long-term investor has to take portfolio approach to investing. That is, invest in say 12-15 stocks across sectors. This will ensure that when one sector or set of stocks goes down, his networth is not wiped out.

[04:52:04 PM] => Ybalasubramanium: At current indices (or maybe 10% lower) should I be buying into cyclical or should I look at the software / biotech sectors as an investment option
[04:53:58 PM] => JP: Portfolio approach to investing is the best in any market condition. Hence, you could invest in cyclical and at the same time invest in IT stocks also (maybe 10-15% lower).
[04:54:22 PM] => JP: Investing at 10% lower than the current levels would definitely be the good levels to invest in the market.

[04:58:57 PM] => Eric.clapton: Are pharma stocks a genuine growth story at this stage or just a defensive play?
[04:59:22 PM] => JP: Pharma companies are by all means is a defensive play and not growth story.

[04:59:49 PM] => Trader90: Should one look for trading opportunities at counters like Satyam, Infosys and Zee or hold on to these scrips from a medium term perspective
[05:00:36 PM] => JP: These stocks are likely to fall further and has a room for at least 10-15% downside from the current price, hence if you are planning to trade in these stocks, maybe you should hold on for sometime.

[05:01:19 PM] => Cag: Would index Funds be a better bet than individual stocks at this point of time?
[05:03:01 PM] => JP: Considering that the market is near its lows and outlook on individual stocks is uncertain, it is much better to invest in Index Fund, esp. if one doesn’t have the right advisor who could recommend quality stock picks.

[05:03:21 PM] => Sanjaynshenai: Please give you comments on the old economy stocks?
[05:04:00 PM] => JP: Pharmaceuticals, refinery and cement stocks look the best. I would recommend Cipla, Dr.Reddy, Ranbaxy, BPCL, HPCL, IBP, Grasim and ACC from these sectors.

[05:05:55 PM] => Partadas: Forget the next six months , what steps do you see this government take in the Budget of 2002 , will they stick to it
[05:06:51 PM] => JP: Assuming that the present government is ruling our country till the Feb-end, the Union Budget will be good. We expect many measures, just like in this year’s budget, which will spread the feel-good factor. Remember, we are fast approaching 2005 when we have to adhere to the WTO norms. Hence, the budget will have to factor that.
[05:07:26 PM] => JP: As far as sticking to the measures proposed, the government does have a poor record. We can just hope and pray that the government does implement the proposed measure, rather than speculate what they will do.

[05:13:54 PM] => Myiris: Hold on friends Mr Patel will be back in a moment, he is on a important call

[05:18:07 PM] => Haresh65: Hey does CISCO's comments on stabilization mean that the Worst is over for techs?
[05:18:56 PM] => JP: Maybe, maybe not! If you study the trend of the forecasts given by various companies – big and small alike – in the US over the past 12 months, they tend to go wrong as often as the research analysts! Hence, a statement coming from CISCO cannot be wished away, it by no means mean that the worst is over. We just have to wait and watch and get some more positive signals before we can conclude that.

[05:19:29 PM] => Dharmendra: will Indian markets keep following us markets.or it will break away & take its own stride.
[05:20:38 PM] => JP: They will follow the US market as far as the micro-trend is concerned. But if one were to look for long-term trend, say over 2-3 years, we would not necessarily follow the US market. A lot will depend on the dynamics within our country – for example, if we pursue disinvestment and other reforms reforms process aggressively, the Indian market could easily outperform the US market.

[05:21:19 PM] => Srinivas : what is ur call on ssi?
[05:21:48 PM] => JP: We see at least 15-20% downside in the stock.

[05:24:43 PM] => Srinivas : what is ur call on castrol and why?
[05:25:09 PM] => JP: Castrol offers arbitrage opportunity. Since the Open Offer price is Rs350 and ruling market price is Rs250, we see the stock rising on the day the company announces the date for the Open Offer. Beyond Open Offer, we recommend a sell on the company, considering the future business prospects, which doesn’t seem very good.

[05:25:43 PM] => bmaniar : I have been following the recently introduced index and equity options but have found no mention of the implied volatility surface.
[05:26:09 PM] => JP: We are yet to mature to the level of talking about implied volatility. The market is right now grappling with understanding what a Call and a Put is.

[05:26:47 PM] => rohan : You Broker people making small investor fool , just let me know if you rec a stock without cornering first.
[05:27:02 PM] => JP: No.

[05:27:21 PM] => Zohair : Is there any likelyhood of SEBI bringing back some kind of relief to the trading pattern so as to give some boost to the low volumes affecting our stock market?
[05:27:54 PM] => JP: SEBI will bring in margin trading and futures on stocks, but not badla. These factors could boost volumes, esp. margin trading.

[05:28:16 PM] => Zohair : What are views on the state of the market both domestically as well as internationally. How long do you feel it will take for the US economy to recover? How far do you think will Mr Alan Greenspan go in reducing interest rates?
[05:29:19 PM] => JP: We have no views on international market, and our views on the domestic market we have already conveyed earlier. I would not hazard the guess on the timing of US recovery, but from the recent data, we feel we may not be very far from it. As far as reducing the interest rates is concerned, maybe not more than 0.5% from the current levels of 3.5%.

[05:35:07 PM] => Myiris: Hold on friends, Just give a moment to Mr Patel

[05:37:35 PM] => bmaniar : I would like to know your views on PE ratios. Is it something you genuinely consider in your investment decisions ?
[05:38:22 PM] => JP: PE ratio is only one of the tools – and a not very important one at that. We look more to capital efficiency of the company - ROE and ROCE - for valuation purposes, esp. for old economy stocks.

[05:38:59 PM] => rohan : what are you recommend now after looting poor people
[05:39:57 PM] => JP: Brokers don’t loot people. Market does it. Investors have to be careful with their money. There is no point in blaming others for ones own greed!

[05:40:42 PM] => svsman : when do you think the market will regain its lost lustre
[05:41:15 PM] => JP: As I said in one of the questions earlier, we see a recover in the first quarter of CY2002, maybe beyond March 2002, i.e. post-Budget.

[05:46:44 PM] => Ybalasubramanium: :So you are expecting the market to touch 3000 levels
[05:47:02 PM] => JP: Market may touch 3000. But it will recover back to current levels also as swiftly.

[05:47:44 PM] => RAVINDRA GADIYAR : How's TELCO as a value buy given current low valuations and its intrinsic strength in HCV segment. ?
[05:48:17 PM] => JP: The outlook on LCV and HCV is very uncertain as yet and also the car project is making losses. Till the economy shows a clear signs if recovery, Telco will remain under pressure. We continue to be negative on the company.

[05:48:34 PM] => ravindra : I have always believed that company intrinsic strength is a decisive factor for any shareholder. Keeping in view this, TELCO is a good investment bet in long term . Your views Sir.
[05:49:14 PM] => JP: Refer to the answer to the above question of Ravindra Gadiyar on Telco

[05:49:46 PM] => Myiris: That was the last question Mr Jayesh Patel answered.
[05:50:05 PM] => Thank you Mr Jayesh Patel for your valuable time and sharing your expert views with us.

[05:50:35 PM] => Thank you all the participants for joining us and don’t forget to join us on Monday 27th August 2001, for another chat session with Mr Sandip Sabharwal - Fund Manager - SBI Mutual Fund

[05:51:14 PM] => Myiris: That's all we have for today friends, bye for now