=> Myiris: Ladies and Gentlemen, Just
[03:48:39 PM] => Myiris:
The live Chat session with Mr. Nadkarni will begin at 4:30
[04:23:09 PM] => Myiris:
We welcome you to the Live Chat Session with Mr. Girish Nadkarni.
[04:23:52 PM] => Myiris:
Mr. Nadkarni will be joining us in a few minutes.
[04:29:35 PM] => Myiris:
The Chat is now in session.
[04:29:50 PM] => Myiris: DISCLAIMER
[04:30:39 PM] => Myiris: Mr. Girish
Nadkarni is the Director of TAIB Securities (India) Ltd. At
the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Girish may or may
not have positions in the stocks mentioned below , although
holdings may change at any time.The views expressed by Mr.
Girish Nadkarni is based upon information that he considers
reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete,
and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Girish, his
company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners,
and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions
in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or
derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may
take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:31:19 PM] => Myiris: None
of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended
to constitute a recommendation of any particular security
or trading strategy or a determination that any security or
trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the
extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed
to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and
not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person.
You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether
and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:31:44 PM] => Myiris: Lastly
the views expressed by Mr. Girish have no bearing whatsoever
with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy,
adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible
for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from
the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it
has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account
of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:32:48 PM] => Shilpajain: Hello
Sir, When do you think the volumes pick up, which has almost
reduced to 1/10th compared to last year. Will it again start
picking up in today’s market condition? What are the Sectors
you are bullish on?
[04:33:13 PM] => What
do you think of upcoming Biotech industry? Do you think it
is the right time for investment if we are at long-term period
or do you expect the market to fall below this levels?
[04:33:45 PM] => GN:
The peak level volumes witnessed last year were significantly
on a higher side because of high level of speculative activities.
However I agree with you that the volumes today are much lesser
and hence volatility is likely to be high.
[04:34:08 PM] => I
think two factors are necessary for volumes to pick up 1)
the players in the markets need to sense profits from the
[04:34:46 PM] => 2)
Retail participation has to improve for which there needs
to be a pick up in the derivatives markets or alternatively
a mechanism for financing the margin trades. My guess is it
will take 6 months for the volumes to pick up. We continue
to be bullish on the IT sector and also the Power sector.
The valuations of a couple of two-wheeler companies are also
[04:35:22 PM] => Battingo:
How do you identify good small cap stocks? I'd read TAIB's
report on Zicom some time back. What are the risks in such
[04:35:54 PM] => GN: I think in
the current market scenario companies with strong cash-flows
would be the ones who will outperform. In identifying good
stocks whether small caps or otherwise, one would have to
look at the quality of promoters, quality and sustainability
of earnings and returns on capital employed.
[04:36:40 PM] => The
risks in stocks like Zicom is that the holding period mighty
be much longer because of a disinterest in the markets for
such stocks in the current market condition.
[04:37:31 PM] => Verma1986:
Sir, tell me the outlook for stocks like Satyam, NIIT, SSI
and Hughes telecom?
[04:38:33 PM] => GN: While the
markets have taken a negative view on Education stocks like
NIIT and SSI, we believe that the long term business potential
for these companies remains intact and therefore at today’s
valuations we find the stocks attractive.
[04:39:12 PM] => With
respect to Satyam there are issues relating to its subsidiaries
Sify.com and the likelihood of its attaining break-even in
the near future. This has impacted the valuations of Satyam
and we would not recommend an investment until there is clarity
on the future revenues.
[04:39:54 PM] => Get_Anand:
Will the market go down drastically still? At what level can
we enter in to the market?
[04:40:49 PM] => GN: We believe
that the market has discounted most of the bad news and despite
the current hiccups such as the UTI crisis, the market is
very close to the bottom. We would rather adopt a bottom up
strategy and decide on specific stock investments rather than
wait for a specific level.
[04:41:28 PM] => Rahu.i: I own
150 shares of DSQ Software. My purchase price is Rs. 500 per
share. I would like to know what should be my investment strategy
on this. Can I retain this share?
[04:41:59 PM] => GN:
Based on the concerns related to Corporate governance, I would
recommend that you get out of DSQ software.
[04:42:32 PM] => Rmadhavan: The
cause of the rogue trades paralyzing the NSE on 4th July is
clearly the result of software logical errors. It is surprising
that the concerned authorities in NSE/BSE did not visualize
this situation and provided for necessary changes in the software.
[04:42:57 PM] => This
raises doubt on the credibility of their functioning and the
investor care. What do you feel?
[04:43:24 PM] => GN:
The rogue trades/errors happen on most exchanges in the world
and sometimes it may not be possible to visualize all possible
situations. However, I think the NSE has handled the problem
very professionally in suspending trading, canceling the abnormal
trades and then re-starting.
[04:43:53 PM] => Geetageetaraj:
Despite trading cum bonus, the Blue Dart scrip has actually
fallen from 230 levels to 180 levels after the bonus was announced.
Why is it so?
[04:44:30 PM] => GN:
The overall market conditions and the lack of liquidity has
resulted in the price coming down. The overall business remains
sound and we are very optimistic.
[04:44:58 PM] => Avi: Dear Sir,
what is the lowest share rate in current date, and is it advisable
to buy a quantity of it?
[04:45:19 PM] => GN:
Your question is not very clear. Is it with respect to any
[04:45:57 PM] => Gopaul: What
are the prospects of Maars Software? Can I buy Crest communication
as a long-term buy of 1 year?
[04:46:22 PM] => GN:
The basic business of Maars software that is ERP has seen
improvement internationally and is therefore is likely to
positively impact the company.
[04:46:48 PM] => However
the issue of corporate governance still remains and it may
be better to wait & watch the results for next two quarters
before investing in the same.
[04:47:10 PM] => There
has been a lot of hype about certain tie-ups with International
companies for Crest communications and as a result the stock
price has seen some upward movement after hitting a low. While
the company has strong technical skills, the overall slowdown
in the business is likely to impact the company in the near
future and hence I would not recommend Crest at this rate.
[04:47:36 PM] => Vilax: I have
bought Shyam Tele at Rs. 65. I would like to sell it after
a year, how much growth can it provide.
[04:48:04 PM] => GN:
While a further downside seems limited, the overall improvement
in the price is dependent on the overall recovery in the stock
prices of the technology companies. There is also a likelihood
of consolidations in the Telecom sector, which could have
a positive impact on the company.
[04:48:34 PM] => Chitah12345:
Sir, In the aftermath of the rolling settlement and US-64
debacle can you recommend three stocks for the small investors
like us who can probably invest in them and hope to make some
recovery of the losses made last year.
[04:49:05 PM] => GN:
I think it is best to stick to companies with Quality management
and prospects of strong earnings in the medium term. I think
at current prices stocks like ABB, NIIT and ITC should do
well and could yield good returns.
[04:49:15 PM] => Infoworl: Future
of Sataym for investment?
[04:49:35 PM] => GN:
Already answered earlier. Refer to answer to verma1986 question.
[04:50:03 PM] => Swatikaura: What
is carry forward? Why has it been banned? What is the system
followed by other countries?
[04:50:30 PM] => GN:
Carry forward is a mechanism of deferring trades across settlements
by payment of margin and finance charges (Badla).
[04:50:55 PM] => The
system had been grossly misused and had led to excessive speculation
leading to sharp spurts and sudden falls in the prices. The
system followed in most countries is the current system of
settlements on a T+5 basis and along with a separate market
[04:51:13 PM] => Ayan: Sir, Any
good bets in MNC, Pharma & FMCG companies, with good 15-20%
growth in current year? At what price level I should invest
[04:51:45 PM] => GN:
In the FMCG sector companies like ITC and Smithkline Consumer
look pretty attractive at current prices. In the pharma sector
over the medium term Indian companies are expected to do well.
[04:52:15 PM] => However
the valuations are a bit expensive and we believe that despite
a dull performance in the recent past, Glaxo could be a good
long term stock. Also Hoechst Marion Rousell looks very attractive
at current price.
[04:53:56 PM] => Myiris:
Mr. Nadkarni, is answering an important phone call and will
be back in a few minutes. Please bear with us.
[04:55:12 PM] => Keval: Are our
FMCG companies worth the P/E multiples or discounting cash-flow
multiples or ROC multiples at current prices given dismal
growth rates? Your views on Gillette India , HLL and Britannia?
[04:55:55 PM] => GN:
I agree that most FMCG companies have shown low volume growths
in the current year, but that was also an impact of the deficient
monsoons last year leading to low rural demand.
[04:56:26 PM] => With
the outlook on the monsoons very good this year, this is expected
to change and while we may not see the heady growth rates
witnessed by these companies in the mid-nineties, we are fairly
optimistic about these companies posting good growth rates.
Further most of these companies are very well managed with
good corporate governance and strong cash flows.
[04:57:10 PM] => From
a medium term perspective all the three companies are sound
investments and one can expect a 20-22 per cent compounded
annual growth rates.
[04:57:55 PM] => Harikishen: Is
Tisco a good buy at around 100 levels - your views on the
Steel Sector - are we going to see a revival in old economy,
that is the manufacturing sector?
[04:58:52 PM] => GN:
Tisco has shown a remarkable turnaround and the last year
saw record profits on account of an optimal product mix and
huge gains on account of restructuring. This is likely to
continue in the future and if the Government’s infrastructure
spending does pick up, Tisco would further benefit. Tisco
is a good buy at current levels.
[04:59:42 PM] => Mani: What are
you expecting of Infosys and Wipro based on results of this
QTR and, further guidance in the long term - Would you advise
me to hold onto both these stocks at present or should I get
the hell out?
[05:00:25 PM] => GN:
The management has already indicated lower growth rates for
the coming year, while the market is still expecting Infosys
to outperform the projected growth rate of 30 per cent, there
could be some disappointment immediately after the results.
[05:00:57 PM] => However
in the absence of any outstanding positions on the stocks
and fairly attractive valuations, I think both the scrips
should move up from the current levels in the next couple
of months. My advice – Hold on to both the stocks.
[05:01:26 PM] => Kanak: Where
do you see this bear rally ending - 2750?
[05:01:42 PM] => GN:
I am not so bearish on the markets and the markets should
look up in the next couple of months, however because of increased
volatility, the market could test its previous bottom of 3096.
[05:02:18 PM] => Mandeep: Can
other mutual funds also do a UTI - that is ban the sale and
repurchase for some time - if they can given whatever law
what in gods name has SEBI being doing - isn't it supposed
to safe guard the interest of the small investor or are they
just sitting and enlarging their paunches
[05:02:42 PM] => GN:
Other Mutual funds would not face the situation as they are
already NAV based. The problem with US64 is the dichotomy
between its NAV and the repurchase price.
[05:03:05 PM] => Ramesh: Given
market turmoil can you actually spot a silver lining in them?
[05:03:16 PM] => GN:
I think the whole market is full of opportunities and one
must make use of all negative news to invest in value stocks.
[05:03:34 PM] => Akansham: I have
not heard much of TAIB securities - what services do you offer
us as lay investors?
[05:04:16 PM] => GN:
TAIB Securities currently caters only to Institutional clients,
however in the next couple of months we would be launching
our online web trading for retail investors and you could
then get registered.
[05:07:07 PM] => Hunoz: With option
spreads being too huge at this point do you see people transacting
in them for the next few months. How does one calculate the
[05:07:46 PM] => GN:
The problem with Options trading that one has witnessed in
last couple of days is that, there are no Option writers in
the market. Therefore in the few cases where there are writers,
the spreads are very large.
[05:08:48 PM] => This
is indicative of people unwilling to take risks with writing
options on account of various factors such as uncertainties
in the cash market and absence of understanding of pricing
options etc. It will take some time for this market to pick
[05:09:39 PM] => Santosh: The
Government keeps on changing its figures like the weather
and the moods of a women- GDP estimates have been scaled down
and growth rates are expected to be in the 4-5% range- would
you advise me to invest in this
[05:11:35 PM] => GN:
I agree that there has been a down grading of the growth rates
in the GDP estimates, however two factors make me optimistic,
1) good monsoon and the consequent strong impact on GDP and
2) expectations of Government spending in infrastructure projects
leading to an overall recovery in the industrial sector.
[05:13:39 PM] => Bkexport: What
do you think about L&T, HPCL & Sterlite Opticals. Should we
enter in the market now, and which are the sectors you would
advice for investments: Software, Steel, Cement, Refinery,
[05:15:35 PM] => GN:
I think L&T should be a big beneficiary of the Govt infrastructure
spending and a likelihood of a firmness in the cement prices.
The sale of the cement business would result in substantial
interest savings and strong cash flows.
[05:17:13 PM] => With
respect to HPCL, while it is cheap on all valuation parameters,
there is expected to be a pressure on the refining margins
in the future, and hence a strong out performance seems unlikely.
[05:18:34 PM] => In
the case of Sterlite Opticals, the current price makes it
an attractive buy. The comfortable order book position and
the expected strong demand for the next two years, also reiterate
our buy on the stock.
[05:19:20 PM] => Janak: The media
sector at this point is looking very attractive since all
channels are expected to go pay - the freebies are over -
should one look at investing in stocks like Zee and maybe
unlisted stock such as NDTV?
[05:21:59 PM] => GN:
I think ZEE at the current price looks positive despite the
negative publicity that the company recieved over the last
couple of months. The benefits of the Pay Channel should begin
flowing immediately and although the stock might be volatile
because of a strong speculative interest, one can expect a
good return from the current level of Rs. 100.
[05:22:31 PM] => An
investment in a stock like NDTV would be dependent on the
[05:24:45 PM] => Preeti kumari:
The primary market for Equity looks almost dead, what do you
say about this? Will it pick up?
[05:26:04 PM] => GN:
I agree the primary market has been dead for sometime and
is likely to be so for quite some time. The primary market
is dependent on the secondary market and only a revival in
the secondary market would spur companies and investors to
enter the primary market.
[05:26:39 PM] => ashok k aggarwal:
How do you see markets during the next week?
[05:27:58 PM] => GN:
My view is that markets will be eagerly awaiting the results
from Infosys next week and the mood would be determined by
it. However, I expect the markets to be strong despite a lot
of negative news flowing in the markets.
[05:28:46 PM] => However,
the markets will continue to be volatile over the coming months.
[05:30:05 PM] => sanjay agarwal:
Why Indian Tech. stocks who cater in majority to U.S markets
& u.k are not behaving along with global trend i.e.. Falling?
[05:31:55 PM] => GN:
The Indian markets have moved in line with the International
markets, and while the Sensex might not have fallen in line
with Nasdaq, the more relevant comparison would be with the
Mindex which has fallen more than the fall in the UK and US
[05:32:36 PM] => sanjay agarwal:
Why Infosys is continuously strong when all other stocks are
[05:33:48 PM] => GN:
There has been a shift in the Fund strategy towards investing
in large Cap and well managed stocks and hence at every fall
there are institutional investors who are willing to invest
in Infosys as the valuations are attractive.
[05:34:31 PM] => Hence,
after the initial fall Infosys has been fairly stable in a
band of 3200-3800 although, very volatile.
[05:35:35 PM] => hitendra vasudeo:
The SENSEX has formed a bearish pattern called ENGULFING BEAR
pattern on weekly charts. What do you feel about the market
[05:36:39 PM] => GN:
The Engulfing Bear pattern is indicative of a short term downward
pressure on the markets. However, the medium term charts suggest
a bottoming process being under way.
[05:37:19 PM] => k kamal: its
good to buy IT scrip now?
[05:38:00 PM] => GN:
I have already answered this earlier. We are fairly positive
on the Investment in IT stocks at the current levels.
[05:39:05 PM] => bren111: Which
one sector do you consider as a growth sector over the next
12-15 months and name 2 companies that you consider the best
in that sector.
[05:40:21 PM] => GN:
I think besides the IT sector, on which I have dwelt at length
above, we are bullish on the Power Sector and stocks like
Tata Power and ABB would be good bets over the next 12-15
[05:41:08 PM] => Rajesh: Is geometric
soft in good business?
[05:42:59 PM] => GN:
Geometric is in a niche segment of software products and services,
that is, CAD/CAM and CAE, where the growth rates globally
have slowed down but the addressable market is still very
large for a small company like Geometric to succeed.
[05:43:46 PM] => preeti: From
where the lay man like us understand how does options work
can you please tell us where should we get such leads?
[05:46:01 PM] => GN:
There are a lot of web sites that offer information, in addition
to books. Further, of late there are alot of conferences on
this subject that you may wish to attend. Also, a good way
to get a feel of the options and futures market would be sit
with a broker when the market is live and understand the implications
of the trades done.
[05:46:37 PM] => vedachelam: May
I invest in equity or in income funds?
[05:47:04 PM] => GN:
If you have the risk appetite, Equities would be the right
place to invest now.
[05:47:26 PM] => Gourish: What
is the future of debt markets vis-a-vis equity markets in
[05:49:27 PM] => GN:
With a move towards best international practices the Equity
markets are likely to see increasing levels of investments
in the medium term from all sets of investors. The debt markets,
are fairly illiquid when compared internationally and therefore
for small investors a debt fund may be the best alternative.
[05:50:33 PM] => Myiris: Ladies
and Gentlemen, Mr. Nadkarni has just answered the last question
for today's Live Chat Session.
[05:51:09 PM] => Myiris: We thank
him for his time, and for a very informative session with
[05:51:33 PM] => Myiris: We also
thank all the participants for their questions.
[05:52:26 PM] => Myiris: Please
do join us on the 9th of July '2001 for another interactive
[05:53:16 PM] => Myiris: Our guest
for the day is Mr. Nandakumar Surti, Head Fixed Income Fund,
JM Mutual Fund.
[05:53:41 PM] => Myiris: Good
Bye, and Thank you once again for joining us!