| Transcript of Chat with Mr. Sanjay Dutt ( Director, Quantum Securities Pvt Ltd. ) - Is 2002 another year for the Bears? - (15/02/2002) |
[04:27:24 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the live chat session.
[04:31:05 PM] => Myiris: Our guest today is Mr. Sanjay Dutt, Director, Quantum Securities Pvt Ltd.
[04:33:06 PM] => Disclaimer :
[04:33:39 PM] => Mr. Sanjay Dutt is the Director, Quantum Securities Pvt Ltd.. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Dutt may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr. Dutt is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Dutt, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:33:56 PM] => None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:34:14 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Dutt have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:34:23 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the chat session Mr. Dutt.
[04:35:47 PM] => ysrinivas_1999 : Please suggest one good second rung tech counter for investment.
[04:36:09 PM] => SD : In my view Blue Star Infotech, Mastek and Geometric look good for a long term investment.
[04:36:31 PM] => sree_dev : What are your top picks for year 2002?
[04:37:15 PM] => SD : BPCL, HPCL, Ashok Leyland, Siemens, Titan Watches, Samtel Color, Satyam and Zee Tele
[04:37:39 PM] => rkbangia : Where to invest Rs. 1 lakh in the present scenario?
[04:38:16 PM] => SD : Select stocks across sectors and no specific sector...some ideas given earlier.
[04:38:39 PM] => vermasanjay : How is IBP, BPCL, HPCL for trading?
[04:39:52 PM] => SD : Good as an investment for 12-18 months....I never recommend trading.
[04:40:22 PM] => anadev : Can you please indicate some risk factors in securities?
[04:43:46 PM] => SD : Simply put - Market risk and Security specific risks. Simply put for a layman, the possibility of the market itself going down or up and them the specific risk associated with the stock not performing as per out expectations.
[04:44:14 PM] => sudipto : I am holding few shares. Should I sell it now or it will touch at list Rs 1300.00. Wait for that?
[04:45:36 PM] => SD : What share…no name given by you.
[04:46:02 PM] => kumar_subir : Should I purchase shares of Vikas WSP?
[04:46:56 PM] => SD : No don’t.
[04:48:03 PM] => Stanbrown39 : Do I have to report a stock sale if it was a loss?
[04:48:17 PM] => SD : Report to whom ?
[04:49:13 PM] => girishdora : Future of GAIL?
[04:49:31 PM] => SD : Bright, looks good to me for investment and not trading.
[04:51:19 PM] => ayanad1: Sir, What is your view on IPCL disinvestment price? Also how many shares out of 100 will be practically accepted by Tata's in the open offer for VSNL also what price level you see for the stock after the closer of open offer?
[04:52:12 PM] => SD : Extremely overvalued, stay away from IPCLlikely price 60-70...VSNL...approximately 50 shares are likely to be accepted....price post offer...160-170
[04:53:29 PM] => ayan : Where you see the market on the eve of Budget day and where you see go market in the month of March and April?
[04:54:39 PM] => SD : I am not that worried or targeting any index level for the market. I recommend a stock specific focus. Simply put, just like you have seen the index appreciate by 25-30 % from lows of Sept 2001 and lots of stocks going up by 100%, u will not see it appreciating much however some stocks will outperform and double or triple even within the index like you have seen ACC, Telco etc in the past. Just focus on the winners and not the market.
[04:55:48 PM] => anand_menda : Hi Sanjay, what do u think are the prospects for MTNL now that the government has stated that it is not going to disinvest it in a hurry? I am holding 1000 shares which I purchased at 132 each. What according to you should be my strategy?
[04:57:40 PM] => SD : I think you should sell part of your holding and hold the rest waiting for the divestment.
[04:58:06 PM] => arunhtchat : You are a permanent bull. Does correction, bearishness, and downside ever figure in your vocabulary?
[04:58:34 PM] => SD : No, it does not that’s why I have lost money like most of us. I am also learning, however I am still alive because I have a exit strategy planned with a stop loss.
[04:59:09 PM] => seema_b24 : Having purchased 900 shares of ITI Limited at the average rate of Rs.30. May I sell in this present rally or hold.
[05:00:25 PM] => SD : I think you should sell.
[05:00:44 PM] => joyghosh100 : I have some Aptech bought at 83.It's not traded in the stock exchange now. Can you give some idea how to get rid of this junk share. Sir, I also have IPCL at 83,What would be it's target price. And my last query is, Is it possible to predict any good Tech share now that will give me higher return after the Budget. Best Regards.
[05:01:30 PM] => SD : Once the merger formalities are over, it will trade. I think you should get rid of IPCL overvalued at the moment. Satyam, and HCL Tech look good even for the short term.
[05:01:59 PM] => jitroy : What's the future of SAIL. I bought it at Rs 5.
[05:02:20 PM] => SD : Not positive in my view. Sell and exit.
[05:02:32 PM] => choudhary_sn : I have purchased RPL 1000 at Rs 40. What should I do?
[05:02:52 PM] => SD : Stay invested.
[05:03:34 PM] => NG76 : How about Larsen & Toubro?
[05:04:00 PM] => SD : I think it will be a market performer.
[05:04:09 PM] => Meghna : What do you think for the market in a one-month horizon?
[05:04:36 PM] => SD : Upside capped at 3800, however if we get some superb announcement of PSU disinvetment and a good budget, this will be beaten. On the downside, keep a stop loss at 3370.
[05:04:45 PM] => SNS : Why are you such a pessimist Mr. Dutt?!!
[05:05:00 PM] => SD : Huh huh !! news to me!!!
[05:10:26 PM] => S. Prabha : Sir, How much is the retail participation in derivatives market?
[05:10:46 PM] => SD:At the moment 80%.
[05:12:04 PM] => Breddy : Which is the next big boom sector?
[05:12:13 PM] => SD: Nothing specific.. u will see stocks outperforming markets and sectors…and vice versa…it’s a bottom up market for the next year…
[05:12:32 PM] => Raj54 : What is your outlook on ITC given that cigarette sales are falling?
[05:12:48 PM] => SD: Neutral-barring M&A action….
[05:14:24 PM] => Paras : What's your outlook on UB stock?
[05:14:44 PM] => SD: Only positive is the possibility of Govt Announcements for the liquor sector
[05:16:23 PM] => Priya Chaturvedi : Why is it that after every scam stock brokers are victimised whereas company management and merchant bankers who helped rig the share prices go scot free?
[05:16:45 PM] => SD: Good question…I cant answer it….ask the policy makers, government, judiciary…
[05:19:41 PM] => Slangs : My friend is telling me the markets are going to peak at 3700 before the budget do see no more than that upward trend?
[05:19:50 PM] => SD: I don’t think this is correct…focus on stocks not the market…
[05:22:44 PM] => Ashok : What upper gain I can book on Infosys before the budget?
[05:22:55 PM] => SD: Difficult to stay…but stay invested…
[05:23:04 PM] => Squeria: Which will be the ideal bet for this year's market, purely in terms of gains?
[05:23:23 PM] => SD:I like the oil sector (Psu) and Rel Petro they shoud outperform…
[05:24:59 PM] => Ready : Derivatives touching peaks everyday, do you feel the volatility in the markets is going to get curbed?
[05:26:50 PM] => SD: Why worry about volatility use it to your advantage by trading derivates or hedging with them
[05:28:57 PM] => NM : What do you think of Onward Technologies?
[05:30:31 PM] => SD:Don’t track it
[05:30:43 PM] => Raghu : Any good private sector banks that you can suggest?
[05:30:54 PM] => SD: Idbi Bank, global trust bank (may get a surprise there) all negative out and provided for.
[05:31:17 PM] => A. Kakatiya : Please name good auto scrips?
[05:31:51 PM] => SD:Top pick Ashok Leyland and Hero Honda, Maharashtra scooter
[05:34:33 PM] => Manish : What is the next support level for sensex?
[05:35:48 PM] => SD: Shoud be in the range of 3350-3450
[05:39:15 PM] => Ayanad1 : Dear sir, what is your view on Bharti tele. share prise when it list on Monday? What prise you think small investor like me can expect the shares to go on during the trading session and should sell at that prise?
[05:42:10 PM] => SD: I think it shud list in the range of 54-58….if you get anything above this price, sell it to buy again at lower levels…
[05:42:40 PM] => Srgopal1 : How do you foresee the rally happening in PSU stocks? Will it continue post budget too?
[05:43:02 PM] => SD: I think the PSU rally will carry on after a little correction/consolidation at the currnet levels…yes, if there are more positives in the budget, it will carry on…
[05:43:15 PM] => tdjoshi : What level sensex is likely to touch in pre budget bull rally. Around what date?
[05:44:57 PM] => SD: Already answered above
[05:45:16 PM] => tdjoshi : Do you feel it is worth buying Henkal Spic at current levels?
[05:45:51 PM] => SD: No stay away..
[05:46:59 PM] => tdjoshi : Do you feel GE Shipping is worth buying at current levels with hopes that it may acquire SCI during disinvestment process.
[05:47:09 PM] => SD: I don’t think GE will buy Sci, however I don’t like the stock…
[05:47:21 PM] => tdjoshi : What high level Satyam & Indian Oil Corporation are likely to touch in this rally.
[05:47:28 PM] => SD: Satyam should tourch 330-340…IOC, not much upside left…
[05:47:37 PM] => Bajaj : Can you advise on future prospects of Nicholas Piramal?
[05:47:46 PM] => SD: Don’t know as I don’t track it
[05:48:03 PM] => Shama : How much upside u r seeing in BPCL,HPCL, ONGC? SCI& NALCO are good to invest ?
[05:48:13 PM] => SD: I see another 30-40 % rise over the next 6-12 months
[05:50:33 PM] => Bajaj : Can you advise on future prospects of HCL Technologies?
[05:50:41 PM] => SD: Brite, stay invested…enter on declines if not invested
[05:50:49 PM] => Bajaj : Do you expect inidan IT stocks to perform in the next quarter given the US economic scenario?
[05:50:57 PM] => SD: Most of them are fully priced with just about 10-20% upside in the next quarter…
[05:51:39 PM] => Ajay : Please give your top 5 picks from IT
[05:52:15 PM] => SD: Already answered above
[05:52:48 PM] => Shama : Nice to see ur recommendations . Can u list the ur favorite PSU's in the order?
[05:53:00 PM] => SD: Already tackled
[05:53:17 PM] => vsprao : What is your opinion about SSI, will it recover from the recent lows?
[05:53:24 PM] => SD: Stay away from SSI
[05:53:32 PM] => Mahender : Should I sell Satyam now. I bought at 250.
[05:53:44 PM] => SD: Sell next week around 320-330 levels…however do keep a stop loss at 282-278 levels…
[05:54:33 PM] => Samir: I have bought infosys 25 shares at 3950 shd i hold ?pls advise
[05:56:12 PM] => Myiris: Please ignore above question
[05:56:34 PM] => Spatil: How one should fix stop-loss as u mentioned in the volatile stocks Satyam,Digital etc?
[05:57:29 PM] => SD:Use a concept of trailing stop loss…for example if you bot satyam at 250 do keep a stop loss of say 220 and now say it goes to 280, you stop shud turn to 260 and if the stock is 310 keep on increasing it i.e. it shud now become 280 and so on…with this kind of a strategy, u will always exit with a profit or a limited loss….
[05:57:51 PM] => Mahender: What do you think of software industry? Don\'t you think it will remain range bound unless something drastic happens?
[05:58:04 PM] => SD:I think individual stocks would give good returns, however the entire industry as a whole will remain as a market performer i.e. normal returns in line with market performance…
[05:58:50 PM] => Mahender: I bought 20,000 IFCI at 3Rs when should i exit ?
[06:00:03 PM] => SD:Yes exit
[06:00:09 PM] => inxs_22in: Do you provide tips for buy & sell individually ?
[06:00:19 PM] => SD:no I don’t I only recommend investment bets…
[06:00:43 PM] => vspraoo: What is your opinion about ssi, is it a buy or sell or hold at current levels
[06:00:51 PM] => SD:I don’t like the stock…I prefer niit in the education business
[06:00:58 PM] => Ajay: Given the choice between infy, saty & digital which one will you prefer at this time?
[06:01:04 PM] => SD:Saty, then infy and digital
[06:01:20 PM] => ayan: Sir what is your view on how bharti shares would be quoted when it get listed on monday? Does 55-60 rs. band looks very much possible to you?
[06:01:34 PM] => SD:Yes I think it shud touch that level
[06:02:15 PM] => Joy: Sir,Please name some stocks that will double in 6 month from now in different sectors
[06:03:12 PM] => SD:I don’t have any magic wand or potion-however stocks for investment I have given my views above
[06:03:37 PM] => Kartikeyan: SO BULL MARKETS IN INDIA are a load of Bull Mr. Dutt as rightly put by you during the last chat (a long time ago on myiris) ...I congratulate you for forecasting the same although only as a headline and not as the matter of the text since you had suggested a 12 -18 month investing period --- lost my pants Mr. Dutt
[06:04:25 PM] => SD:Yes, me too lost a lot of money-but limited my losses by exiting.remember its when you sell that counts more than what you buy!!!
[06:04:48 PM] => ayan :Sir your view on Tata Tea and Indogulf please?
[06:05:08 PM] => SD:Indo Gulf looks good…..tata tea (no view)
[06:05:15 PM] => inxs_22in: how about jp ind
[06:05:24 PM] => SD:stay away…
[06:05:33 PM] => ayan: Sir I have purchased Siemens around 200 rs. just few weeks back and has been a ggod run in the counter. Around what prise you think I should be hopeful to get down the line??
[06:05:40 PM] => SD:Exit at 285-295
[06:06:36 PM] => Blanche: IBP still worth a buy at current levels
[06:06:43 PM] => SD:No, not much upside…I prefer HPCL and BPCL..,
[06:07:11 PM] => Ayan: Sir in the recent rise of the market from 3200 lvels to 3550 levels frontline IT stocks have under performed the market so far..Do you see if the index stabilise during the next week then these stock to outperform during the week??
[06:07:32 PM] => SD: Yes, it is possible that these stock do the catch up act….but I would still bet my money for a longer period on other stocks I talked about…however, satyam and hcl t look good to me…
[06:08:04 PM] => Markjan69: Dear Sir as per your last recommendation on myiris.com you had suggested the following investment pattern - tech 40%, pharma 15%, fmcg 10%, old cyclicals 25% and the balance in PSU . Thanks to you I have lost a lot ... any bright ideas now !!!!
[06:08:17 PM] => SD: I don’t think you could have lost a fortune….you would surely have made good money in 50% of your portfolio i.e. pharma, old cyclicals and PSUs…further I am also sure that your portfolio would have outperformed the market ….ideas now…once again maintain a balance portfolio, do book profits and also LOSSES on time….
[06:08:24 PM] => Shekhar: well, as there is still no participation from the common investor, this rally could fizzle out anytime. your comments.
[06:10:17 PM] => SD: I don’t think this rally is important…what counts is the stock you invested in….
[06:12:58 PM] => shekhar : i`m bullish on nuclear software. your comments and the right price to enter it
[06:14:28 PM] => SD: No idea I don’t track the stock .
[06:16:10 PM] => Deepa: Sir do you suggest buying TATA and Siemens from current levels??
[06:16:21 PM] => SD: Yes siemens looks good….don’t know about Tisco
[06:16:29 PM] => I S Gumber : How you view GTL share in next 15 days
[06:16:36 PM] => SD: Sideways, buy if it breaks out of 124…
[06:17:21 PM] => Samir: hv bought infosys 25 shares at 3950 shd i hold ?pls advise
[06:17:40 PM] => SD: hold
[06:17:50 PM] => Nitish: I purchased 2700 shares of morepen lab @84/- what are the propects of this company
[06:18:01 PM] => SD: I don’t like the company/management
[06:18:33 PM] => renjit: Will there be good news for software in budget.
[06:18:41 PM] => SD: No clue…
[06:18:54 PM] => shiv: Should one stay invested in Wipro if one has bought the stock at 1600 levels? Is there any upside in the stock in the medium term.
[06:19:39 PM] => SD: Stay invested-target 1800 for medium term
[06:27:16 PM] => Myiris: Mr Dutt is on the phone-viwers kindly hold on
[06:30:02 PM] => Myiris: Mr Dutt has to leave due to an emergency.So thats the end of the chat session for today
[06:30:25 PM] => SD: My apologies to all those viewers
[06:30:37 PM] => Myiris :We thank you all for logging on.
[06:30:59 PM] => Myiris: Our thanks to Mr. Sanjay Dutt for his time and inputs which made this a lively event.
[06:31:16 PM] => Myiris : Hope to see you all again soon
[06:31:25 PM] => Myiris : Till then its bye from us....good night!
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