| Transcript of Chat with Mr. Alok Churiwala ( Director, Churiwala Securities Private Ltd. ) - PSU stocks - The hot picks (11/02/2002) |
[04:33:17 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the live chat session.
[04:33:27 PM] => Myiris: Our guest today is Mr. Alok Churiwala, Director, Churiwala Securities Private Ltd.
[04:33:45 PM] => Disclaimer
[04:33:53 PM] => Mr. Alok Churiwala is the Director, Churiwala Securities Private Ltd. At the time of this conversation / chat, Mr. Churiwala may or may not have positions in the stocks mentioned below, although holdings may change at any time. The views expressed by Mr. Churiwala is based upon information that he considers reliable, but does not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Mr. Churiwala, his company and its affiliates, officers, directors, partners, and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, buy or sell and deal as principal in the securities, or derivatives thereof, of companies mentioned herein and may take positions inconsistent with the views expressed.
[04:34:01 PM] => None of the information contained herein constitutes, or is intended to constitute a recommendation of any particular security or trading strategy or a determination that any security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person. To the extent any of the information contained herein may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. You should consult with and rely upon your own advisors whether and how to use such information in making any investment decision.
[04:34:09 PM] => Lastly the views expressed by Mr. Churiwala have no bearing whatsoever with that of IRIS Ltd. IRIS does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. IRIS especially states that it has no financial liability whatsoever to any user on account of the use of information provided on its website www.myiris.com.
[04:34:16 PM] => Myiris: Welcome to the chat session Mr. Churiwala.
[04:37:26 PM] => GR : Future of HPCL?
[04:37:38 PM] => AC : The future of HPCL is directly related to the disinvestment process. The company has been churning good results for the past few years, but its only now that the stock prices have begun their upward move. The market expects the price around Rs 330, as a fair valuation.
[04:41:49 PM] => anupdhingra : Do you think SCI is a good pick?
[04:42:33 PM] => AC : I have been a strong advocate of PSU stocks for over a year now. This is a very dicey question, whether one should enter the PSU stocks at these levels, considering most of them are very close or have reached their 52 week highs. But SCI is one such stock whose book value (31-3-2001) was Rs 78 and even at current market price of around Rs 52, it is available at a discount of around 33 per cent to book value. Also the disinvestment in the stock is just round the corner with the last date for filing an expression of interest is 18-feb-2002. Both Great Eastern Shipping and Essar Shipping are likely to envisage interest. One can expect action on the counter.
[04:46:47 PM] => ayanad1: Sir, Do you advise investing in BEL at what levels and then your target price and holding period for the stock?
[04:47:21 PM] => AC : There seems to be a fairly decent case for this stock too, considering the fact that BEL will benefit by the lifting of sanctions and also increased defense spending. It may be worthwhile to still enter the stock. One can however not rule out a possibility that there could be corrections in the stock prices from the current levels. Typically at these levels, one could buy the stock with the time frame if six months to a year, but invest only 40 per cent of the amount allocated for this scrip at this time. If the stock happens to fall one can definitely buy more stock aggressively. A price target of Rs 195 seems highly achievable in the time frame mentioned.
[04:52:07 PM] => chitah12345 : Mr. Churiwala, what is your advise for the small investor like me who has VSNL shares to do now? Sell in the market around Rs. 170 or wait for the open offer in April and get Rs. 202 for some portion of the shares and sell remaining shares in the market afterwards? Also how many shares you practically think will be accepted by the company in the wake of fact that some big investors like Bank of New York and some overseas and domestic biggies may not opt for open offer.
[04:52:19 PM] => AC : There is still a long time to go as far as the open offer is concerned which happens to be in April. The current price of Rs 170 is after taking in to account the Rs 75 (Tax free) that you may have already received as dividend. So ideally, it would be prudent to sell the stock, as one of the main drivers of the PSU stock story is currently the disinvestment angle, which has already taken place in case of VSNL. Also as you rightly point out that the entire chunk of shares that may be offered may or may not be accepted by the company. So I would rather take what is available today rather than wait for the price of Rs 202.
[04:52:41 PM] => ayanad1 : How you rate HPCL and CONCOR from today’s prices in the short period time frame of say till Budget?
[04:54:48 PM] => AC : In spite of there being frenzied activity on both these counters, one can buy both HPCL and CONCOR for a short time frame. However, in my view the upside till the budget from these levels may not be over 10-15 per cent.
[04:54:56 PM] => joyghosh100 : I have bought Bharat Earth Movers at 28.60.What should be it's target Price? Can you mention any other PSU stocks at this stage that can give me double return from now. Regards.
[04:58:57 PM] => AC : You have done well, my friend, having got in BEML at a good price. Considering you are doubling your capital, any price between Rs 50-55 should be a good price to exit the stock.
[04:59:46 PM] => It is very difficult to say, which are the other stocks that will give you double the returns from this stage. But there a host of companies that one can closely look at namely, IPCL, Hindustan Zinc, State Trading Corp, Neyveli Lignite, SAIL, and Gujarat Mineral and development Corp.(GMDC)
[05:02:25 PM] => zaksait : Which PSU shares will rise before the budget? Which ones are good for long term?
[05:02:34 PM] => AC : Companies that one can closely look are IPCL, Hindustan Zinc, State Trading Corp, Neyveli lignite, SAIL, and Gujarat Mineral and development Corp.(GMDC). All these stocks mentioned will continue to stand in good stead and would constitute for a good long-term portfolio.
[05:06:11 PM] => ashardipty : I have Global Tele for Rs 2800, what should I do, shall I average or sell it?
[05:09:53 PM] => AC : It would be necessary to realize that your entry price may not come for a long, long time. Having said that there is couple of strategies that you could deploy. One is to book your loss, forget it as a bad dream and invest in other shares. The other of course is to try and capitalize on every move on the same stock. This however requires a lot of time and one needs to be in constant touch with the markets. Based on your temperament you would be in the best position to decide, which of the above strategies would suit you.
[05:10:13 PM] => adrian_aranha : Which are the hot stocks on PSU?
[05:10:21 PM] => AC : Please refer to my earlier answers.
[05:10:29 PM] => adrian_aranha : What price is good for exit on Nalco, BOI and Atlas Copco?
[05:12:33 PM] => AC : Nalco at its 52-week high. My recommendation for BOI is to stay invested. The stock seems to be in for good times. And although there have been some positive initiatives by the Atlas Copco management, its best to exit the stock, because the industry it caters to is showing no signs of early revival.
[05:14:00 PM] => ajaymanju : I have brought SCI at Rs 40 in March 2001. What should I do considering the disinvestment. Should I wait or sell?
[05:14:10 PM] => AC : You should most definitely wait. Please refer to my earlier answers for reasons.
[05:15:14 PM] => akkasotu : I guess many must've asked this, even so, what are the best picks and over what period of time?
[05:15:21 PM] => AC : Please refer to earlier answer for PSU best picks.
[05:16:49 PM] => akkasotu : At the moment, what would be the target price for Neyveli Lignite?
[05:17:02 PM] => AC : Price target for Neyveli Lignite Rs 30 ( in 3 months).
[05:17:31 PM] => chakri_pani : The BHEL divestment in the year and current market rate is below?
[05:17:39 PM] => AC : Can’t under stand your question.
[05:19:25 PM] => ayan : Sir, today Siemens has closed around 247 Rs. after going above its buyback price of 250 Rs. for the first time after its buyback announcement some 4-5 months ago. What is your view on the stock and your advise for the investors here who are having the stock?
[05:19:33 PM] => AC : I would recommend investors to hold on the stock.
[05:22:20 PM] => smsindia : This co is a very old co. Is it true that a huge amt of annual dividend is not encashed & goes into the govt treasury because the warrants are not encashed? Where is this info available.
[05:22:33 PM] => AC : yes, its true. After a period of time, dividend not encashed go to treasury. This information would be available either with the registrars of companies concerned and the ministry of finance.
[05:25:04 PM] => goeltex : Is it worth buying BPCL at 307 and HPCL @ 246?
[05:25:17 PM] => AC : If you are a punter, and extremely quick in decisions, and following the markets tick by tick, then you could buy HPCL. Otherwise you may get caught in the cross fire.
[05:26:49 PM] => Dinesh : What is the chance of economic recovery in next three months and why?
[05:27:04 PM] => AC : Based on current scenario, the chances of economic recover in the next 3 months does not seem very bright.
[05:30:51 PM] => Pradeep : Do you think that the speculative volume at the cash segment can be reduced after the introduction of the delivery based settlement in the derivatives segment?
[05:31:28 PM] => AC : I don’t think there will be a significant reduction in the speculative volumes on the cash segment. As the players who generate volumes on the cash segment are either arbitragers or intra day speculators. For the intra-day speculator, it would make no difference. However, the percentage of delivery business will definitely rise. Thereby giving an illusion that speculation has gone down, but the total quantum of speculation would still be the same.
[05:34:12 PM] => Battingo : What are the prospects of Jupiter Bioscience and Zicom?
[05:34:26 PM] => AC : Zicom is in the business of electronic surveillance and has its network spread over 16 cities. So far it enjoyed virtually a monopolistic situation in its segment. However the going may not be as rosy with an American major ADT, entering the arena. Jupiter Bioscience is a stock that should give fantastic returns over a 2-year investment horizon.
[05:37:08 PM] => theshahs : In your views what would be the trends in the market next week? Do expectes any pre-budget rally in the coming days? If so in which areas?
[05:37:16 PM] => AC : I believe what we are currently going thru is a part of the pre-budget rally. I do not expect the market to shoot up sharply. 150-200 point gradual upward move over the next 2 weeks cannot be ruled out.
[05:40:49 PM] => tunnalal : At the derivatives segment, the volumes were largely at the stock futures, while remained subdued for the other areas? Where do see the growth in the near future?
[05:41:10 PM] => AC : Futures are relatively simple to understand (almost like the erstwhile badla product). Options on the other hand are more complicated, but offer umpteen ways to make money at lower risks. Hence once people understand the options products, trading there would increase. But I think that in absolute terms the volumes on the futures will always be much higher.
[05:42:42 PM] => bhibhu74 : Prospect of IPCL touching Rs.100/-
[05:43:10 PM] => AC : If we see an other move like the one we saw today, we are almost there. Most likely the stock should Rs 100 barrier this time.
[05:44:37 PM] => bhaveshsheth9 : What you expect from current budget?
[05:44:47 PM] => AC : Not much really. As long as the balance is not upset too much, we’d be home dry.
[05:45:54 PM] => bhaveshsheth9 : What are your pre budget picks?
[05:46:03 PM] => AC : Housing, infrastructure, and pharma are areas one can concentrate on.
[05:47:44 PM] => Battingo : Which small cap stocks look good to you?
[05:47:57 PM] => AC : There generally is a liquidity problem with the small cap stocks and they are far easy to manipulate. Hence haven’t concentrated much on them.
[05:49:58 PM] => tikoo69 : Indian Oil Corporation?
[05:50:06 PM] => AC : Great stock, great future, but totally investment grade item. Once the current interest fades I do not expect much volatility in the stock.
[05:52:39 PM] => Mohan : Hughes software, this stock which was highly valued once is at an attractive price. Buy/Hold or sell?
[05:52:47 PM] => AC : Most of the infotech stocks were highly valued once. But my recommendation for Hughes Software is HOLD.
[05:55:11 PM] => AJAY : Sir, do you think SCI would be disinvested below book value of Rs 78 (31.3.2001)
[05:55:31 PM] => AC : NO. The way, the current disinvestments were handled, one thinks that the give is in no mood to sell its companies cheap. I think the govt has become market savvy and is on the right track.
[05:58:05 PM] => Dinesh : What is your opinion about Tips and Balaji?
[05:58:20 PM] => AC : Moved up too much too fast. Caution advised.
[05:59:30 PM] => Seema Biswas : I had purchased 1000 ITI equity at the average rate of Rs.27/-. Kindly advice whether to hold or sell the equity at present rate of Rs.14/-.
[06:00:14 PM] => Seema Biswas : I had purchased 1000 ITI equity at the average rate of Rs.27/-. Kindly advice whether to hold or sell the equity at present rate of Rs.14/-.
[06:00:23 PM] => AC : Bandit queen???? (No offence). Hold. If the stock touches closer to Rs 10, you can buy some more.
[06:03:02 PM] => Investor : How is Mastek for short term investment, as you know Mastek personally ignores market they are already in. Also their marketing seems to be weak. You know personally stories of Strac and Xcalibur?
[06:03:11 PM] => AC : Don’t remind me of the experience of Excalibur. But I guess that was because it was too small a market segment for them to focus on. But then since when have stock prices had any connection with customer satisfaction?
[06:05:16 PM] => kirancontacts : What are major factors behind the rally for Tata Engineering? What is ur outlook on the stock?
[06:05:26 PM] => AC : Continuing improvement in Indica sales and also the change in outlook for the auto industry has led to upward move in the stock. Outlook for the stock is that the worst is clearly behind us.
[06:07:12 PM] => Shivram : Dear Mr. Churiwala, kindly let me know the 1 year outlook for Sterlite Optical, HCL Tech and Wipro Ltd.
[06:07:27 PM] => AC : All the three stocks mentioned are expected to perform well on the bourses. One can expect a capital appreciation of about 40 per cent from current levels, 1-year from now.
[06:11:20 PM] => Ahuja : Which is the best stock, is GAIL ok ?
[06:11:32 PM] => AC : GAIL is also a stock that holds promise. Can safely go ahead. But do not expect miracles overnight. This stock can tire you out.
[06:11:40 PM] => Ashok : Picked Neyveli at Rs 11. Would it be right to book profits now or hold ?
[06:11:51 PM] => AC : Sell 50 per cent, wait a little longer for the remaining.
[06:13:20 PM] => Manoj : How is HLL?
[06:13:30 PM] => AC : Great stock to have in investment portfolio. Not much of a delight for momentum traders.
[06:14:23 PM] => Vishal : Is Satyam a good buy now?
[06:14:31 PM] => AC : Wait for it to fall. Don’t buy now.
[06:18:10 PM] => Satish : You have answered my question in general terms re unencashed dividend going to the govt. My specific reference was to IBP since this has relevance to the amount of shares that will come in under the public offer. Is this info not available in the annual report that surely must be with analysts?
[06:18:18 PM] => AC : Sorry, Satish. Can’t help you out there. I’m not sure if its mandatory to publish unclaimed dividend in annual reports.
[06:22:55 PM] => Raja : Seeing kerala, states in india are going bankrupt. What is the worst that can happen?
[06:23:04 PM] => AC : There are a lot of things that are a lot worse that we can imagine. Being an eternal optimist, I think the worst has already happened and I don’t expect any other state to follow suit.
[06:25:09 PM] => Myiris : Thats the end of the chat session for today.
[06:25:28 PM] => Myiris :We thank you all for logging on.
[06:26:23 PM] => Myiris : Our thanks to Mr. Alok Churiwala for his time and inputs which made this a lively event.
[06:26:58 PM] => Myiris : We'll be back on Friday - 15, with more on chatmasala.
[06:27:38 PM] => Myiris : Hope to see you all again soon..
[06:27:51 PM] => Myiris : Till then its bye from us....good night!
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